On June 13, ten days ago boss Wagner He launched his armed uprising against the Kremlin in the biggest domestic challenge he has faced since Vladimir Putin took power. Russia On the distant New Year’s Eve of 1999, the president of Russia issued a kind of proclamation. ultimatum against the founder of powerful militia mercenaries. “This has to be done and done as soon as possible,” he said during a conversation with military bloggers. In concert with the defense minister, Sergei ShoiguPutin wanted “volunteer detachments” operating in Ukraine to wear Under the direct control of the Armed Forces after signing a contract with Ministry of Defense. Chechen forces under the command of Ramzan Kadyrov had signed the day before, but Evgeny Prigozhin He reiterated that he refused to hand over responsibility for the “geriatric clowns” he had humiliated for months to his men.
had as order deadline July 1 and some analysts have figured out that Wagner’s presence – the group that has become one of the organization’s armed wings. Russian foreign influence— The days may be numbered. “Shoigu, about Prigozhin checkmate“If Wagner doesn’t sign contracts with the ministry, the state may stop supporting Wagner or even take legal action against them,” Dara Massicot, an analyst at Rand Corporation, told The Guardian. “He had other plans. And last Friday, russian regular army After launching a missile that would kill 30 mercenaries at one of Wagner’s camps in occupied Donbass, he ordered his paramilitary units to march on Moscow.
“We did not want to overthrow the regime”Prigozhin said in an 11-minute voice on one of his Telegram channels this Monday, for the first time since he had agreed to suppress his soldiers’ rebellion on Saturday when he was still young. 200 kilometers from the Russian capital “to prevent bloodshed”. A decision taken after tripartite negotiations between Prigozhin, the Kremlin and the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko. “The goal was prevent the destruction of the private military company Wagner and hold accountable for those who made terrible mistakes during a special military operation because of their lack of professionalism. Society demanded it,” he added. He led the capture of Bakhmut and other major wars in the Ukrainian Donbas before it rebelled against the hand that fed it for years.
In a televised image this evening, Putin made an offer to the “bloodless” Wagner fighters. join the Russian army or go to Belarus and stressed that the “overwhelming majority” of the mercenaries under Prigozhin were “patriotic”. According to the Russian president, the revolt would have already been “suppressed”.
An empire in Putin’s shadow
No matter how long he’s been cursing Shoigu and Valery GerasimovAs the Chief of the Russian General Staff and commander of the occupying forces in Ukraine, no one expected such a drastic move as he did last weekend. After all, it was Putin who allowed Prigozhin to develop after starting out as a politician. hot dog vendor And petty criminal. First, with lucrative contracts for him Catering and then with a private militia used as an extension of Russia’s foreign policy. Syria, Libya, Sudan anyone Central African Republic. Without the Kremlin’s approval, he would not have been able to enlist the tens of thousands of prisoners he used as cannon fodder in Ukraine.
“Prigozhin is very creative, charismatic and ambitious. Crisis Group in Russia analyst Oleg Ignatov told this newspaper his job is tied to the State, but he has been very interested in politics for the past ten years. media empirehave “troll” factoriescounter-maneuvered. Russian opposition and helped elect politicians close to Putin.” He is not short of money because his companies are also involved in government affairs. oil, gas, diamonds and gold. According to the Financial Times, this business empire 250 million dollars In the four years leading up to a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, despite years of sanctions.
Why did the revolt stop?
This leads to another question: why is Prigozhin? advance of troops towards Moscow when the damage has already been done and you have a lot to lose? After all, the agreement brokered by Lukashenko and announced by the Kremlin only gave him exile in Belarus And allegation that the charges were dropped for the sake of which he will face his mercenaries “betrayal” And sedition. Prigozhin said on Monday he stopped moving forward “when it became clear that a lot of blood was going to be spilled”, but answers are still in the air. According to ‘Meduza’, an independent Russian information portal, lack of military support for the uprisingFor little more than 24 hours in which the ‘coup’ lasted, there was no public acknowledgment from leading Russian commanders or politicians.
The English ‘Telegraph’ offers another explanation. Citing British security sources, Russian secret services threatened the families of several Wagner commanders with serious reprisals unless the rebellion is stopped. A third factor must be added to this. Unlike the 25,000 mercenaries that Prigozhin says he sent against the capital, various sources claim that they did not reach 10,000; occupation of Moscow or the possibility of Wagner engaging in a prolonged armed struggle with Kremlin forces.
It may be, but they also found almost no opposition to receive paramilitary forces. rostov-on-don anyone Vorozneh. “The bulk of the Russian combat troops is in Ukraine. Prigozhin wanted to use it and Weakness of the Russian security apparatus“, says Ignatov, who currently lives in exile in Brussels.
There are still a few chapters left of this story. For now, the state agency Ria Novosti has published that the charges of armed insurrection against Prigozhin have not been dropped. An uprising that was not without blood, as was said at the beginning. At least 15 Russian soldiers died during the uprising, after Wagner’s militia shot down several helicopters.