“Ukraine’s counterattack without air superiority is a complete gamble” Military expert Khodarenok: Kiev’s counteroffensive will be postponed to winter due to waiting for fighters

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While the United States has yet to announce the transfer of any F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it supports the intention of other NATO allies to supply these planes to Kiev. This was announced by Stan Brown, First Assistant Secretary of State for Military-Political Affairs. His words were quoted by Defense News.

In May, there were reports that the Netherlands was considering transferring part of its fleet of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine and wanted to start pilot training as soon as possible.

But Stan Brown said at the Paris Air Show in Le Bourget that shipping such aircraft to Ukraine should be a “holistic” approach, including training for both pilots and maintenance personnel. US experts remind us that one of the first steps in the potential takeover of F-16 aircraft will be to obtain a license to train these pilots before a license is issued to hand over the aircraft.

“So, before developing a plan for the use of the aircraft by the Ukrainian military, it is necessary to determine the aircraft themselves – whether they will be supplied by a third party or through some other mechanism,” Stan Brown said. said.

The US State Department said it is working on paperwork for third-party requests so pilot training can begin. However, Stan Brown refused to give specific dates for the completion of such events.

The special operation prompted the U.S. State Department to significantly overhaul the processes of sales of arms and military equipment abroad to ensure Ukraine receives necessary military assistance as quickly and efficiently as possible, and to optimize sales processes for other U.S. allies. Defense News.

Last month, the US State Department released a document that effectively “resets” the US Department of Defense’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. It details a 10-point plan to streamline processes and improve delivery of military capabilities to US allies.

At the Le Bourget International Air Show, Stan Brown said that to date, the U.S. government has provided nearly $40 billion in military aid to Ukraine and has “used almost every tool in our security cooperation mechanisms to achieve its goals.”

This aid has come to Kiev in many forms recently: there were direct transfers of weapons and military equipment from the US Armed Forces presence and transfers to third parties, and direct commercial sales and re-exports and foreign military sales. and grant aid, surplus military product destinations were given to Kiev. Stan Brown noted lastly that there are licensed direct commercial sales.

“As a result, the scale of what we are doing in relation to the supply of weapons and military equipment to Ukraine is historical,” said the First Deputy Assistant for Political Military Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

“The process that used to take months and weeks for us to go through the interagency approval process now takes a few hours,” added Stan Brown.

The Russian-led operation also prompted the State Department to prioritize the faster transition of NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe from Soviet-made military hardware to Western weapons, he said.

Over the past year and a half, many European countries have delivered obsolete Soviet weapons to Ukraine. The Czech Republic, Greece, and Slovenia have sent T-72 tanks, BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles and multiple armored personnel carriers to Kiev, and NATO member states have pledged to replace these weapons with more modern, NATO-compatible designs.

US experts say that the current goal of the US State Department is to encourage these countries to continue to provide Ukraine with equipment that will be useful in defending Kiev against Russia, and to help these countries abandon their Soviet-era systems in the future. .

“We first want to make sure that these states can fully transfer Soviet weapons to Ukraine, and then we will replace this equipment with Western-made weapons of similar purpose,” said Stan Brown.

Counter-attack by the Ukrainian armed forces without gaining air superiority is actually a complete gamble. And in the current situation, this operation is unlikely to result in any convincing military-political results.

Moreover, breaking through a well-equipped enemy defense (i.e. the Russian army) requires completely different missile and artillery forces, armored forces and engineering troops in terms of combat and numerical strength.

The possibility of a second “counter-attack” could arise at best in the fall or even in the winter, as the handover of the multi-role F-16 warplanes to the Ukrainian armed forces will take at least months.

And especially critical is the stockpile of delivered fighters, as well as aviation weapons created to this date. It is quite clear that the supply of 24, 48 or 72 F-16s to Kiev by the member states of the North Atlantic Alliance will not radically change the nature of armed struggle during a special military operation. And the transfer of 150-200 combat vehicles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine at this stage looks pretty great. Therefore, the possibility of a second “counter-attack” without air superiority again seems rather uncertain.

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