Drought, which threatens to cause shocks from agriculture (for obvious reasons) to energy (via hydropower) and major economic sectors; and Spain searches have prior knowledge be able to plan and take measures to mitigate the blow. The government is launching a new water forecasting model that will be made available to major hydrographic basins in the coming months and is activating a network of 80 checkpoints on rivers across the country (with a desire to gradually increase them).
Ministry of Ecological Transition launched A new system to detect alert states in the midst of drought, using combined data on precipitation and temperatures in recent years and projections for the coming months from the State Meteorological Service (Aemet) and the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The government will publish the results of the new computational model every month.
The goal is to be able to c.Calculate water contributions in advance It is estimated in each of the inter-communal hydrographic watersheds (those affecting several autonomous communities), thus facilitating annual water management decision-making in water systems and enabling end users to plan the hydrological campaign, whether for agricultural or urban purposes. to use.
The government designs forecasts for the entire hydrological year (October to September), as well as forecasts for the next three and six months. Contribution estimates are in the ‘natural regime’, ie the rivers are calculated as if there is no infrastructure such as reservoirs or transfers, but a Theoretical scenario for predicting decisions in the face of drought.
a bad summer
The first report by the ministry, with the data obtained so far, predicts that the contributions of water in Spain’s group of large hydrographic basins will increase further. 54% lower than the average for the entire historical series over the next three monthsincluding most of the summer.
This worst-case scenarios correspond to Tagus river basinsWith a 72% reduction, and those of Guadiana and Guadalquivir, both with a 68% decrease in water additives compared to the historical average. The Cantabrian basin will have the best relative performance. Only 38% lower. This is followed by the Miño-Sil and Segura basin (-45%); Ebro (-50%); and Duero and Júcar (-52%).
22% drop over the year
For the next six months, water contributions are projected to decrease by 42% relative to the average of the entire historical series, and this en there is a 22% reduction over the entire current hydrological year (October 2022 to September 2023) relative to the historical average. During the hydrological year, the panorama changes a lot between different hydrographic basins.
The worst prognosis corresponds to the Guadalquivir basin, which is predicted to experience a 62% reduction in water contributions relative to the historical average during the current hydrological year. On the contrary, the Miño-Sil basin will have 11% more water and the Tagus will practically equal the historical record (+1%).
The rest of the basins are experiencing a decline of between 20% and 40% this year. Contributions of the Guadiana basin will decrease by 18%, followed by the Cantabrian Basin (-20%), the Duero Basin (-22%), the Júcar Basin (-36%) and the Ebro Basin (-). According to government-administered projections 38% and Segura’s (-39%).