In last Sunday’s Turkish presidential election, there was an unlikely hero who became a key player in the victory of Turkey’s next president, although he did not advance to the next stage of these elections. Sinan Ogan, He got 5.2% in the first round, a percentage that doesn’t allow him to continue running for president, but his support now needs to be split between the two candidates running for head of state, current president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.
“This second round is particularly interesting because innovation. Speaking to EL PERIÓDICO from the Prensa Ibérica group, the Turkish political analyst said, “The second round has never been held until now because Erdogan has always exceeded this 50 percent since the transition to the presidential system.” Berk Esen. Polls made a prediction Kilicdaroglu victory It could even have been settled in the first round, but the reality was different and Erdogan outstripped the opposition candidate by a large margin. more than four points advantage. Still, it’s not enough to avoid a runoff on May 28.
“King maker”
Thus, Sinan Ogan was unexpectedly called the “kingmaker” by the country’s press, because the outcome of the second round of these elections may depend on who he supports. although not publicly appreciated to any candidateOgan drew the red lines of his support on Monday, implying that he would not support Kılıçdaroğlu. He assured that he would only support the opposition candidate if he agreed not to make concessions to the pro-Kurdish parties, something practically unthinkable since they are part of the coalition.
“We will consult with our voter base regarding our decision in the runoff. However, we have made it clear before that, counterterrorism “The return of refugees is our red line,” Ogan said in an interview with Reuters on Monday. ATA, alliance of ultranationalist Turkish parties Under the leadership of the Zafer Party, which is known for its anti-immigrant stance and strong hand against the Kurdish people. Ogan later claimed that his aim was to remove the two predominantly Kurdish parties from Turkey’s “political equation” and to support Turkish nationalists and secularists.
Erdogan’s victory
For Erdogan, the support of Ogan’s voters is something more possible. “Ogan will not support Erdogan publicly, but his votes are almost certain to go to the president. Ogan and Erdogan agree on ‘small committee’ and he says Ogan will become a minister after the president’s victory,” says Esen. Kılıçdaroğlu has received a lot of Kurdish support, especially from the east of the country, and Sinan Ogan is an ultra-nationalist Turk. will not tolerate any concessions The opposition candidate of the Kurdish people. Even if Ogan wanted to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu, I do not see it possible for his voters, the ultranationalist Turks, to support him.”
The number of votes in the first round made it clear that Erdogan did not lose as much support as initially expected and he won. good chance to reaffirm your authority. “Turkey has recently been shaken by the worst earthquake in its history and at the same time a serious economic crisis Erdogan has never really had such bad results. What’s more, it far exceeded the voting expectations that made Kılıçdaroğlu the first-round winner,” says Esen.
voting expectations
Faced with the second round of elections, both candidates are starting from different positions than they had in the first round. Estimates are different now. In fact, experts say that the opposition’s defeat in the first round may reflect on them in the second round, and that there are those who did not go to vote. “The only thing that can lift Kılıçdaroğlu to his feet is the support of Erdoğan’s supporters. can relax after winning the first round and don’t go to the vote so that the results are equal,” explains the political scientist. “Kılıçdaroğlu is aware that the future is bad. In fact, he’s demotivated and that could drag his constituents down. He only appeared briefly after his first election night, which he shared on social networks,” he adds.
Ogan said he has not met with either Erdogan or Kılıçdaroğlu since Sunday’s vote, but said he would be open to negotiations “on the basis of his principles”. “For example, by signing a protocol with Alianza Nación (in support of Kılıçdaroğlu), we can make it clear that they will not compromise on HDP. It’s that simple.”