Alexander Klimenko, academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, professor and leading expert of the NUST MISIS Competence Center, told socialbites.ca that global warming can only be stopped if the growth of the human population slows down in 25-50 years.
The Glasgow Climate Pact, adopted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties, “efforts to keep global average temperature rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) and limit temperature rise to 1.5°C”. But according to Klimenko, he will not be able to achieve his goals.
“Since the adoption of the Warsaw Declaration in 2013, which calls on the world’s countries to implement the “fastest possible” reduction in CO2 emissions for the first time, the global community has not come close to the pace of the world’s decarbonisation. What is needed is the global economy,” says Klymenko.
In addition, according to the academician, the difference between the achieved and required decarbonization indicators is increasing from year to year. In other words, the decarbonisation program specified in the Glasgow Pact cannot be implemented within the specified time frame.
“The world community has no real opportunities to limit the temperature rise to within 2.0°С or even 1.5°С. “These opportunities will not be available unless the growth of the world’s population is stopped during the lifetime of the current or next generation,” says Alexander Klymenko.
Another important reserve in slowing down the global warming process is the reduction of emissions of methane, a gas whose greenhouse effect is 25 times greater than CO2. This target can be achieved if the largest emitting countries join the global commitments, but it should be noted that these are the poorest countries where the population is actively growing, nullifying the developed countries’ efforts to limit emissions.
The Glasgow Pact also aims to halt deforestation and then restore forests by 2030. After all, it is the planet’s forest cover that represents the most important manageable carbon sink reservoir. The intensity of this runoff has been decreasing over the last 200 years due to the continuous reduction in forest cover area. However, young trees with low carbon dioxide recycling capacity will not be able to compensate for the loss of mature felled forests.
The only real chance of slowing global warming is to reduce the growth of the world’s population.