Why are elections in Turkey important for Spain?

A country far away but also close

Türkiye is an actor. It is important for the EU because neighbour, Business relationships, investments And human exchange, as well as acting as a bridge between the Old Continent and the Middle East and Central Asia. In the case of Spain, the relationship is not a relationship of intimacy, but is valid in other areas. Outside the EU, Turkey is one of Spain’s main trading partners after the USA, UK, Morocco and China. Bilateral trade between Spain and Türkiye in 2022 16,000 million euros. “It is not a neighboring country, nor does it have land and sea conflicts like Greece or Cyprus. This has allowed Spain to have a more positive and friendly relationship. Regardless of the government, the tone of relations has always been very good, very correct. Ankara and Madrid ‘,’ explains Eduard Soler Lecha, professor of International Relations at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB) and researcher at the Barcelona Center for International Relations (CIDOB).

Turkey is also a country where Spanish companies, which have a qualified workforce and are cheaper than the EU, also produce. Among them, Mango or Inditex textiles stand out, but they also have assets in the Anatolian country Indra, Roca, Técnicas Reunidas, Ferrovial or Acciona.

It deserves a special episode BBVAowns 86% of the capital guaranteeTurkey’s second largest private bank. The CEO of the big Spanish bank is actually a Turkish citizen: Onur Young. “If the elections have an economic impact, it will have an impact on one of Spain’s main financial groups,” emphasizes Soler Lecha.

On the other hand, the tender won by the Turkish firm for the renovation of Camp Nou stands out. Limak Holdinga company that bases all its business on public works concessions from the Erdogan government.

EU Presidency

Another striking aspect of the pretentious mood of the Turkish elections in Spain is secondary, because he will take over the post on 1 July. EU presidency. The UAB professor points out that from this position, he will have to manage the post-election scenario “in everything related to Turkey-EU relations, either to deepen relations or to show concern or apply political pressure”.

Also, Spain could be one of the first destinations for the next Turkish president, at least in the EU. European Political CommunityCovering 44 countries ahead of the unofficial Twenty-Seven Council of Europe, which will take place on 6 October. Should Kılıçdaroğlu win, Granada could be where the relationship between the Twenty Sevens and the new Turkish leadership began.

immigration

Turkey plays a leading role for the EU. immigration control. He is one of the so-called ‘gendarmes’ at the outer borders of the Union and that the Twenty-seven maintains a framework together. partnership giving is essential humanitarian support and cover health and education expenses between refugees people living in Anatolia. The agreement signed in 2016, 6,000 million euros Financial compensation to Ankara

Considering the worsening situation in the Aegean, there may be a third migration crisis. Afghanistan anyone PakistanIt will have little impact in Spain, but the controversy that will arise over its needs solidarity between European countries and dysfunction existing policies regarding asylum. “If a new crisis occurs or solutions are found, these will affect the way Spain manages its borders and the degree of solidarity it has received or expects to receive from European countries,” Soler Lecha said.

ties with the EU

Another possible repercussion of the election result in Spain is a possible Turkey’s EU membershipan impossible scenario at the moment.

He promised that if the opposition candidate won, he would work to resolve the crisis. talks with Brussels. However, the ÇİDOB researcher reminds that it will be difficult to make much progress in this regard due to the resistance of some European states to incorporate the Anatolian country, which is seen as more “one”.rival“or a”enemy actorA lot of things would have to change, both in Turkey and the EU, so it wouldn’t be an immediate change, but it is possible to imagine that the process could somehow be restarted. change tone, gesturesand that puts us in a different kind of relationship,” she explains.

If Erdogan is reappointed, everything will most likely remain the same: “Competition, hostility on some issues, cooperation on others, and this logic of exchange.” In any case, Soler Lecha excludes a breakout scenario, as “the level of interdependence is very strong”.

ties with Russia

Finally, the outcome of the elections can have an impact on the development of the country. ukraine warGiven the ties between the current Turkish president and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin.

Turkey facilitated the conclusion of agreements, as in the case of grain. grain exports Mitigate food security risks for the Middle East and African countries, which Erdogan has made public at the national level as a triumph of his diplomacy,” recalls Arnal.

If Erdogan wins continuity and will keep the balance between the two parts: good harmony and cooperation Russia While the supply of weapons to Ukraine continues, in areas such as energy. Unsurprisingly, Putin is openly betting that Erdogan, whom the Russian president has cataloged as “friend” many times, will triumph in this election. Kılıçdaroğlu has already announced that he intends to adapt to the EU and NATO by making a 180-degree turn in foreign policy if his opponent wins; yes, without abandoning cooperation with Moscow. Soler Lecha said, “I have doubts that Turkey can handle the relationship with Russia. The level of dependency on energy, food and trade or tourism with Russia is very high.”