The interlocutor of socialbites.ca, head of the seismic hazard laboratory of the Institute of Earth Physics, says that earthquake forecasting methods that do not have retrospective statistics of positive forecasts cannot be trusted blindly. O.Yu. Schmidt RAS, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Dmitry Zavialov.
Such methods include Dutch seismologist Frank Hougerbits’ method of predicting earthquakes based on the position of planets, a recent prediction by geophysicists from the University of Southern California of an impending earthquake in eastern Turkey, and Russian geophysicist Alexei’s method. Lyubushin focusing on seismic noise.
So Huggerbits’ method of predicting earthquakes based on the position of planets doesn’t seem to work for geophysics. Firstly, there are no retrospective statistics, and secondly, the positions of the planets have practically no effect on the Earth, and it would be more logical to focus on the Moon.
“The only question is the extent of that impact. For example, the Moon affects the tides of the sea. Moreover, the same type of tides occur on the earth’s surface, in the firmament. These tides have a certain amplitude: a few millimeters, centimeters. In fact, the influence of lunar tides on the formation of strong earthquakes can be assumed, since the Moon is closer to Earth than, for example, Mars, Mercury, Neptune, Jupiter and other planets. The expert believes that its effects are much weaker than the influence of the moon.
The source of socialbites.ca believes that the predictions of American scientists are not based on any evidence, as long as they are baseless statements.
“Until I see the analysis materials, this will be a false statement for me… My American colleagues reported that they observed abnormal seismic activity in this region. Then they conclude: “We believe another strong earthquake is preparing here.” In addition, they indicate its size – 6.8. Again, the question is on what data the size estimate is made. I looked at the data on ongoing earthquakes and didn’t see any anomalous seismic activity in the Pyuturge area, nothing. Even in the neighborhood with a radius of 100 km, there is nothing, ”commented Zavyalov.
The second approach, the method of Aleksey Lyubushin, employee of the O. Yu Schmidt Institute for World Physics (RAS), is also untenable. It is based on the assessment of seismic noise at the location of the upcoming earthquake.
Although Alexey Alexandrovich is my colleague, I doubt these estimates. His prediction was correct for the Great Japan Earthquake (Tōhoku Earthquake) of March 11, 2011. But this is the only case and many predictions have already been made. Alexey Alexandrovich is a great expert in processing and analyzing long-term observation sequences. He does this analysis professionally, but then comes the interpretation of the results. A fortune teller speaks like this and if someone else sits next to him, he will say it in his own words. This is called a comment, and my opinion on this is different from Lyubushin’s, ”Zavyalov concluded.
For more information on which estimates can still be trusted, in which regions up to 80% of all strong shocks occur, and a new discovery made by a group of IPE RAS employees – a worldwide impact seismic echo – in report “socialbites.ca”.