This spring was unusual. Thermometers in various parts of Spain broke historical records with several episodes of exceptionally high temperatures for that period. Early attribution studies confirm a definite correlation between climate change and the abnormally warm April month in the south of our country, emphasizing that this phenomenon makes this 100 times more likely. In this context, scientists warn that this situation will recur and worsen by the end of the century. well, Summer eats more spring. The final result will be the arrival of spring in a monthby making the change of seasons more abrupt and raising thermometers above 30ºC three times as much as they do today.
This is demonstrated by a recent informative article signed by several climatologists from the Foundation for Climate Research (FIC) warning of the consequences of climate change for Spain in the medium and long term. Through data from the sixth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a guess how these resources could be in the nine Spanish provincesguess Number of days to exceed 30ºCthe moment when the first day of heat will begin and the maximum temperatures to be recorded.
In this sense, the researchers reveal that in this climatic future, different Spanish provinces could record up to three times more hot days per decade.
The hot days will increase in the spring
In the case of SevilleIt will reach 346 by the end of the century in the most pessimistic emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), recording approximately 82 days of temperatures above 30ºC in spring every decade.
In the case of Madrid, from 9 days in a decade to 156 at the end of the century. And in the case of Ourense, the change will increase from just 2 days every ten years to a total of 56 days.
So in the spring of the future, Seville will have temperatures above 30ºC for an average of 34 days (every spring); Madrid for two weeks and Ourense for five days each year. “is-is three times the number of days we historically observe”, insists Dominic Royé, climatologist and head of Data Science at the FIC.
Zaragoza According to the same study, 30ºC will rise from more than 19 days to 189 per decade, always assuming an additional 3 degrees Celsius of global warming by the end of the century.
In the late spring of the century, Ourense There may be hotter days than currently registered in Malaga and Valencia may exceed the current number registered in Córdoba.
ValenciaThe part, which had an average of 3 hot days in the spring, would have suffered from these characteristics for 154 days around 2100. Murcia It goes from 3 to 102.
However, this does not mean that temperatures will remain within the 30ºC limit. “They could be above”The researcher insists. In fact, depending on the region, maximum temperatures can reach up to 35ºC at that time of the year. In Seville, the maximum temperature is expected to rise from the current 29.3ºC to 35.2ºC by the end of the century if emissions follow the current path. Even in the slightly more optimistic emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), the temperature will reach 32.4ºC.
Inside ZaragozaFor example, maximum temperatures in the spring will rise from 25.6ºC now to 31.7ºC; And Ourense It is estimated that it could rise to 27.9ºC from the current 22.3ºC. “This is the mean of the extremes,” insists Royé, remembering that this is the average of the 95th percentile, so there is a 5% probability of higher values occurring.
The heat will come about a month and a half ago
But spring will not only be warmer, but also besides that stifling heat will come much sooner. In cities like Seville, in the most pessimistic scenario, the first day of temperature (above 30ºC) will recede to the end of March, which is almost a month and a half earlier than normal (early May). For example, in Madrid, these temperatures will be recorded in the last week of April instead of the first week of June. And when it comes to northern Spain, the temperature in Ourense will hit mid-May instead of the usual first days of July.
“What we’ve been through has seemed impossible so far and will be normal in the future,” insists Royé. As the researcher explains, in this climatic future summer halftime seasons will tend to “eat”. But it will be spring that loses the most ground. “Winter will be shorter and disappear sooner, but at the same time the change will be more and more abrupt,” he insists.
In addition to possible drought forecasts, it is possible that “Southern Spain is starting to look more like North Africa”. The researcher insists that “we started with the problem” and reminds us that drought has different kinds of effects, from economic to social.
Reference work: https://sciencemediacentre.es/calor-extremo-en-abril-un-evento-extraordinario-antesala-del-futuro
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