In the near future, if world oil prices remain in the range of 80-90 dollars per barrel, we should expect verbal interventions from the US leadership and attempts at diplomatic pressure on the countries of the Middle East. Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, came to this conclusion – the article “Gasoline is the hero of the presidential race” was published on the website of the InfoTEK analytical center.
Asking whether the sale of the strategic reserve will help control fuel prices in the United States, the author of the material notes that at the end of 2021 the country’s leadership was faced with a problem – the population began to resent the rising gasoline prices. . Then Washington began an unprecedented and, according to the expert, useless sale of its strategic “black gold” stock.
Now the presidential race has started in the USA and gasoline prices have started to rise again.
Alexander Frolov notes that in the USA the cost of oil is about 50% of the price of gasoline (in Russia – about 10-15%). Any change in the global oil market is quickly reflected in the domestic market.
“It is not surprising that in 2020 the price of gasoline for American consumers fell sharply, and then its price began to rise as the global oil market rebounded. But for the average American, the picture looked like this: Motor fuel prices fell under President Trump and rose under Biden,” writes the author.
He emphasizes that the role of gasoline prices as a domestic political factor intensified at the end of 2021, forcing the US leadership to intervene in the world market using strategic state oil reserves. With the onset of the international political crisis in 2022, sales had to be repeated.
The action had a limited effect, says Frolov. In the spring of 2022, oil prices rose above $120 a barrel and began to drop below $100 in the summer, but this was not due to a successful reserve sale but to a reduction in market panic.
Presidential elections will be held in the United States at the end of 2024. Confident that the counterparties will use the “gasoline” argument, the expert added that the remaining stocks will be depleted during the sale of 1 million barrels per day in a calendar year. Five or six months won’t be enough to “bribe” the electorate.
“Behind the success of Chinese diplomacy aimed at quenching the protracted conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it is possible that the US is using non-diplomatic methods to influence stray raw material suppliers. After all, with the clock of the presidential race running fast, gasoline needs to get cheaper for US citizens. And to fulfill this task, any means are good, ”concludes Frolov.