This Savings Banks Foundation (Funcas) waits for headline and core inflation rate -not counting energy products or unprocessed food- it will converge around 5.2% by the end of this year.
It’s an expression Funcas explains that he made his guess inflation 2023 average 4.3% and 6.6%Until 2024, the “slow-fall trajectory” is expected to continue at an average annual rate of 3.3% in both cases.
For this year, CPI expected to rise in AprilAs a result of the “one more step effect on energy products”, which will move in the opposite direction of March, though it will remain well below the 6% rate in February.
According to FuncasVarious step effects will take place throughout the yearAs a result of the strong volatility experienced in energy prices last year, a slow decline in the core interest rate is expected, while moving both up and down.
These are the expected data taking into account the central scenario of the Funcas forecasts: The oil price remained stable throughout the year, around $85, and there is “relative stability” in gas prices observed in Mibgaz.
in a scenario where If the gas price were 20% higher than the discounted price in futures, the overall rate would be 4.7% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024, In an alternative scenario where it is 15% cheaper, the annual average rates would be 4% and 2.8%, respectively.