The growth rate of world trade will drop to 1.7% this year compared to the 2.7% expansion in 2022, pressed by the effects of the war in Ukraine, inflation and the economic crisis. turmoil in financial markets, According to estimates released this Wednesday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The development of trade between countries will be slow Despite the fact that GDP projections for 2023 have improved (+2.4%) in recent months, uncertainties cloud the horizon and belie the most optimistic forecasts.
As a result, both trade and GDP will be below their targets in 2023. average 2.6% and 2.7% growth, respectively, in the last twelve years.
The organization believes that trade is a resilience force for the world economy and therefore governments prevent commercial fragmentationas well as removing barriers to import and export.
Already last year, 2.7% growth in trade was lower than economists had calculated, and that’s mainly because Poor results for the October-December quarter, The increase in the prices of basic products was affected by stricter monetary policies to control inflation and the covid epidemic in China.
this is the last part Pandemic interrupted production and trade with China, which later decided to end this phase, lift all anti-covid measures and reopening its economy to the world.
However, in 2023, the estimated 1.7% growth of international trade is better than expected, thanks precisely to the predictable increase in trade volume. demand for consumer goods In China, once the pandemic is over.
chief economist of the WTO, Ralph OssaOn the other hand, he said that increases in interest rates in the largest economies reveal deficiencies in banking systems and that if these are not corrected, they may lead to greater financial instability, and that governments and regulators should warn in the coming period. moon.
All these factors Forecasts for 2024 are more uncertain than usual. For now, experts think world trade could rise as much as 3.2% and GDP could advance by 2.6%.