After growing 5.5% in 2022, economic activity will grow by 1.4% in 2023According to estimates by a panel of experts surveyed by consulting firm PwC, two-tenths below estimates Bank of Spain and seven-tenths (2.1%) of the Spanish Government’s estimate. The ‘Economic and Trade Consensus’ report, which corresponds to the first quarter of this year and was prepared based on the opinion of a group of 450 experts, businessmen and managers, shows moderate optimism about the development of the Spanish economy throughout the year. Open good export performance and what’s inside family consumption “will continue to hold” despite everything in the next six months.”
predictions YouIt’s three-tenths more optimistic than in the fourth quarter of last year, when PwC experts predicted 1.1% growth in 2023. The rate of those who think that the economy will deteriorate decreased from 71.8% to 16.8% those who believe that they will be better in the next quarter and in a year will increase by twenty points to 48%. Only 23% of survey respondents foresee more difficulties. Looking to 2024, they predict an improvement of 2.1%.
Enthusiasm reigns in the business world. Only 8% rate the economic-financial situation of companies as bad, while 92% rate it as “good or normal”, primarily thanks to exports that will increase or remain stable for 90% of respondents in the next six months. When asked about the competitiveness of companies, the same level of response is received. When it comes to job creation, the position is split between those who think it will continue the same or better, and those who believe that hiring will decrease.
Another issue is what happens at home. Families continue to be the hardest hit This is due to the decrease in the economic growth rate compared to the previous year. While the percentage of those who think it will be worse in the next quarter has dropped from 70% to 34%, the situation is “normal for the majority”. Currently, consumption seems to continue to rise, although 78% expect housing demand to decline, according to 44.7% of respondents.
The survey was conducted before the latest developments in the banking sector in the USA and Europe took place, therefore, it does not take these into account when estimating interest rates and inflation. Thus, 82% interest rates will be between 3% and 3.75% next June Average view shows inflation at 4.1% for June and 3.8% for year-end. However, when asked about pricing policies, 60% stated that they expect to increase these prices, while 40% said they will maintain these prices due to the increase in costs such as energy and transportation.
The report includes a monograph that analyzes the state and main “risks” of public accounts. 63.2% of the respondents stated that the state of public finances has not improved enough after the 2008 crisis and reached Pandemic extreme imbalance. 76% are originally budgeted figures of the expenditures of Public Administrations, the latest crisis-fighting package, which was approved at the end of 2022 and included, among other measures, a 200 euro check for families or the reduction of VAT on basic foods.
Half of those surveyed believe there is a “high risk of not meeting their clear targets for 2023”, and 69% think spending on pensions (the survey was done before the recent changes) puts the sustainability of their pensions at risk. Public finance. One-third regrets the lack of progress in tax reform during the legislative period, emphasizing that the increase in collections is due to a nominal increase in the economy, not a fundamental restructuring that “balances public spending in the medium term”.