Inflation cooled to 3.2 percent in November, down three-tenths from October, according to the National Institute of Statistics. The data, released this week, are from INE and will be finalized on December 14. They project a 3.8% rise in contributory pensions in 2024, based on the average of a dozen inflation-linked adjustments observed over the past year. From December 2022 through November 2023, the average stands at 3.7666%.
The forecast for a 3.8% pension increase in 2024 is slightly under the government’s initial estimate of around 4% and sits well below the 8.5% rise seen in January 2023 after a year in which inflation surged. That year peaked at 10.8%, the highest level in four decades.
Overall, 10.1 million contributory pensions would see about a 6.4 billion euro budget impact from this adjustment, translating to roughly a 52 euro monthly increase for the average pension, which reached 1,377 euros in November.
The November CPI reading from INE shows a 0.4% month-on-month decline, driven by softer electricity, fuel, and food prices. This drop supports an annual inflation rate of 3.2%. Excluding volatile foods and energy, core inflation sits at 4.5%—down from 5.2% in October and the lowest rate since April 2022.
From a government perspective, November’s CPI advance signals broadly favorable news. The ministry notes that purchasing power is improving and that Spanish firms are maintaining competitiveness by expanding market share, even amid tough international conditions.