growing problem sea level rise can be provocative one in ten people on the planet has to leave their homeAccording to two new scientific studies, one from the World Meteorological Organization and the other published in the journal The Future of the World From the American Geophysical Union (AGU). This result significantly worsens the estimates made so far.
The AGU study concludes that the increase in flooding currently detected will occur in the first two-metre section. sea level rise. This means water will cover twice as much land as predicted by older models.
This deterioration in estimates is due to high-resolution measurements of Earth’s altitude provided by NASA’s ICESat-2 lidar satellite. Previous assessments were based on less accurate radar data.
“Radar cannot fully penetrate vegetation and therefore overestimates surface height”Researcher Ronald Vernimmen, who led the study, said he interpreted this as a solid foundation. “Many coastal areas are lower than scientists believe,” he added.
Overestimating the height of the terrain means: coastal communities have less time than expected to prepare sea level rise and that the biggest effects of sea rise will occur sooner than previously thought.
After the measurements, study authors Vernimmen and Aljosja Hooijer discovered that: coastal areas are much lower than recommended old radar data. Analyzes of the new model,A two meter rise in sea level could cover 2.4 times more land area than previous models showed. radar-based This threatens the homes of 900 million people and 80 years from now about 400 million people.
All cities are under the sea
For example, a 2 meter rise in sea level could bring much of Bangkok, Thailand and its 10 million people below sea level. Whereas previous data had shown that with the same amount of sea level rise, Bangkok would still be largely above average sea level.
Vernimmen and Hooijer calculate that, in total, with a sea level rise of two meters: 240 million people more will live below average sea level. After rising 3 meters and 4 meters, this figure increases by 140 million and 116 million, respectively.
Not all cities that fall below sea level will necessarily be flooded in the future, as levees and pumping stations can protect some areas from rising seas. Amsterdam and New Orleans are clearer examples of this situation.
However, these preventive measures can be expensive and take decades to implement. According to Vernimmen, if vulnerable communities want to minimize damage, they need to act before the sea rises those first meters.
Meanwhile, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres stated at the first meeting of the Security Council that sea level rise poses “unimaginable” risks for billions of people around the world.
“The impact of rising sea levels is already creating new sources of instability and conflict,” said Guterres, who opened the meeting days ago. He called for action on the causes and prevention within the framework of human rights and existing regulations.
“Mass Exit”
after noticing the costs some countries have already seen the average sea level rise threefoldwarned that low-level communities – and entire countries – could disappear forever in the coming decades. “We would witness a massive migration of entire populations”he warned. He emphasized that there will be increased competition for fresh water, land and other resources.”
“Global mean sea level has risen faster than in any century in the last 3000 years since 1900. “The global ocean has warmed faster in the last century than it has ever been in the past 11,000 years,” Guterres said.
“Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) tells us: Even if global warming is miraculously limited to 1.5 degrees, there will still be a significant rise in sea level.”, said the head of the United Nations.
The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993. It has risen almost 10 millimeters since January 2020, hitting a new record in 2022. measurements about 30 years ago.
1 in 10 people are threatened
Guterres warned the Security Council that in any scenario of temperature rise, countries Bangladesh, China, India and the Netherlands they will be in danger. Megacities on all continents will suffer dire consequences. pointed lakes (Nigeria), Bangkok (Thailand), Mumbai (Indian) and Shanghai, China), London, United Kingdom), Buenos Aires (Argentina) and new York (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA).
The danger is particularly serious for the approximately 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas.. That is, one of the ten inhabitants of the planet.
The current President of the General Assembly, Csaba Kőrösi, in his speech to the Council, reminded that climate change is “the biggest problem of our generation”. Speaking of projections: 250 to 400 million people will likely need new housing in new locations in less than 80 years.
He also warned that it would have devastating consequences for the world’s “breadbaskets”, particularly the world’s fertile deltas. NileHE Mekong and other rivers. “As always, political will is needed right now,” he said.
Reference work: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022EF002880
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