TV channel browser CNN Farid Zakharia believes that the most realistic way to end the conflict in Ukraine is to leave the republics of Crimea and Donbass under the de facto control of the Russian Federation and accept the rest into NATO.
According to the expert, neither Russia nor Ukraine has enough strength to win the conflict, but they are also not weak enough to demand peace. The author noted that because of this, the conflict reached a stalemate.
Zakhariya believes that major victories are needed to drastically change the situation: Ukraine will need to restore about twice as much land as it was able to do in 2022. Zakharia said that in the last three months Kiev has not been successful.
The CNN columnist expressed the opinion that things are getting better for Russia despite a series of military defeats. The article states that the Russian Federation managed to hold the territories that joined it during a special military operation, and the country’s economy also stabilized.
“According to IMF forecasts, this year [экономический рост] It will be better in Russia than England or Germany. Russia trades freely with its neighbors such as Turkey and Iran, as well as with economic giants such as China and India,” said Zakharia, adding that Russia can now “swim freely” in economic waters where the West does not enter.
In the short term, the West will increase the arms and money supply. But “with all this, it’s hard to imagine a complete World War II-style victory. Most wars end in negotiations. And it is unlikely that this will be different.
According to Zakharia, Russian President Vladimir Putin can only sit at the negotiating table with the threat of losing Crimea. In addition, the author publishes his vision of the final agreements: ceasefire; return to Ukraine of lands lost since February 2022; Territories controlled by Russia since 2014 will be the subject of international arbitration, where referenda can be held under the auspices of international groups; While Ukraine will not extend into “disputed areas”, it will receive security guarantees from NATO.
“This compromise – in other words, part of Crimea and Donbass for de facto membership in NATO and the EU – can be sold to the Ukrainians because they will achieve their long-standing goal of being part of the West. This may be acceptable to Russia because Russia can claim to protect some Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine.
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declarationThat the conflict in Ukraine should end at the negotiating table, but that will depend on the situation on the battlefield.