“A nuclear war cannot be won and should never be liberated.” With this expression, ronald reagan And Mikhail Gorbachev Founded in 1985 security system It was built by both powers to stop the collection of nuclear weapons that began in the 1930s and intensified wildly in the 1930s. The Cold War. Of this structure, only the New START or START III agreement survives today, but remains in a fragile balance after the Russian president. Vladimir Putindecided last Tuesday that it was suspending its country’s participation without detailing what consequences its decision would have. WhatIs the world a more dangerous place? Since this announcement by Putin? What repercussions might it have in the fight against nuclear proliferation? And for the war to progress UkraineWhich year has this Friday been?
After the Kremlin leader’s speech, the Russian Foreign Ministry hastened to justify his words, assuring that the suspension does not mean Moscow has ceased to abide by the Convention. Warhead Limits and Launch Vectors imposed by the text. However, without trusting validations As the agreement states, it will be difficult to confirm that the borders will be respected, which raises suspicion during a time of high tensions between the two countries.Russia And United States of America– HE accumulating 90% of the world’s nuclear arsenalAccording to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
According to Rafael Loss, expert on nuclear policy and arms control at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the lack of verifications already pending since the pandemic by mutual decision, over time “less transparency And predictability On Russia’s nuclear arsenal.” “This step does not help to calm Russia’s current atmosphere. fervent hostility“On the other hand, Sandra Martínez Domínguez of the International Institute for Catalan Peace (ICIP) said that “uncertainty” And “mutual distrust“It will further complicate relations between Russia and the United States and their respective allies.”
proliferation
In any case, Putin’s gesture has set off alarm bells in the West. deteriorating efforts to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons. But experts such as John Erath of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation rule out the possibility of a new war starting. arms raceespecially on the Russian side, immersed as expensive war in Ukraine. “The last thing you need is to try to enter a nuclear weapons-making contest with the United States,” he told the Washington Post.
Teresa de Fortuny, a physicist and researcher at the Delàs Center for Peace Studies, highlights the current dark panorama. De Fortuny recalls that New START was the only treaty in force between the nuclear nonproliferation treaties between the United States and Russia. ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty) and INF (medium-range nuclear forces)”. The US also abandoned multilateral agreements. Open air and broke nuclear deal with Iran “leaving the rest of the participating countries in a stalemate.”
Also, neither Russia, the United States, nor the other seven nuclear states (Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea) are willing to sign the agreement. Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPAN)It was approved by the United Nations in 2017. However, despite these reluctances, the researcher, who thinks that TPAN is a “turning point” and “positive because”, says, “For these countries, nuclear weapons are the main pillar of their defense, this card is always present in their decks.” creates an atmosphere of rejection and discrediting against such weapons.
Martínez Domingo also said that the comprehensive ban “existential threat to humanity” What do these weapons represent? Failure in effective disarmament efforts has “increased the risk that other countries will purchase or develop these weapons,” and reduced controls “increase instability,” he says.
The noise of swords
The implications of Putin’s statement on the war in Ukraine are still unclear. According to Rafael Loss, “it is the last example of stubbornness. nuclear sword swing of Russia since the invasion. Joe Biden In case of deciding whether New START continues to fulfill its obligations or abandons it, it is held liable for its disappearance. Also, Biden faces doubts at home. republicans about the purpose of gun control.
Experts consulted agree that Russia’s action “does not make the world any less secure”. Some of the tests that De Fortuny highlighted are the subject of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, not the New START. “There is always a hidden distrust in the world when there are nuclear weapons,” adds Martínez Domingo, calling for “the recovery of the common logic of security.” In other words, “to strengthen your own security, you must make the potential enemy feel safe.”
from the establishment Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)Ernest Moniz, co-chairman and Secretary of Energy during Barack Obama’s second term, stressed the US and Russia’s “responsibility” to “act together” this week. moderation” and “record keeping and extension No nuclear weapons for 77 years“Let there be nuclear war.