Protesters waving Russian flags gather in Niamey, the capital of Niger, shouting anti-colonial slogans as they throw stones at the French diplomatic mission. Voices cry down with France while others applaud Vladimir Putin. Among the onlookers are supporters of a military junta that seized power in the Sahel nation on July 26. The image is striking, but not entirely new. Across Africa, resentment toward the colonial past sits alongside a willingness to explore new alliances.
The Nigerian military uprising underscored a trend that has unfolded in Africa for years. In 2014, a year after its founding, the Wagner Group established a presence in Libya amid ongoing conflict. The group’s reach reflects how regional permeability and opportunities to influence politics can spread across borders. Mercenaries operate as non-state actors who seek to align with powerful figures or those poised to seize power, thereby expanding influence without overt ties to the Kremlin. This pattern showed itself first in Libya, then in the Central African Republic, and the Congo, with newer openings arising over time. [attribution: Eduardo Saldana, The World Order]
The Nigerian junta, now in power after ousting and keeping Bazoum, found quick support from neighboring military governments in Burkina Faso and Mali. Russia’s role has grown at the expense of French influence, which is increasingly viewed as ineffective and unwelcome. After coups in 2021 and 2022, Bamako and Ouagadougou pressed to withdraw European forces and began inviting Russian security actors. In recent years both governments have chosen to open their doors to Wagner’s mercenaries, preferring local alliances to reliance on Western powers tied to colonial-era dynamics. Experts note that the EU should recalibrate its strategy, shifting from peacekeeping efforts toward facilitating local dialogue and sustainable security arrangements. [attribution: European Council on Foreign Relations]
Russian influence networks
Wagner has become a distinctive force in Mali and Burkina Faso, acting as a protector for militia and coup leaders and drawing influence from the moment of upheaval. As soon as the juntas took root, Wagner established a foothold. The group operates as a Kremlin proxy, adapting its approach as regional headlines shift. The Russian army on the continent is less about direct deployment and more about informal networks that broaden influence without a visible, centralized command. [attribution: Saldaña, security analyst]
These networks are strengthening across West Africa, a region where state presence often seems thin and fragile. The absence of strong state capacity creates openings for third parties like Wagner to offer services to governments or local actors seeking stability or leverage. For Moscow, the region offers a double benefit: it is easy to enter where Western influence is waning and remains strategically important to European partners. The ongoing narrative around French influence has been framed by concerns about neocolonial dynamics and propaganda channels used by media linked to Russia, including outlets such as Russia Today and Sputnik. The rise in criticism of France among former colonies is intertwined with a view that colonial practices and patriarchal attitudes persist in today’s politics dominated by France or other Western powers. [attribution: Saldaña]
New alliances
In this shifting landscape, Russia is not alone in expanding its footprint. The United States, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates have all increased their presence as Europe’s role wanes. Türkiye exemplifies how nations blend soft power with strategic hard power, pursuing security collaborations and counter-extremism programs while engaging with regional bodies such as the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. [attribution: Security Studies Institute]
The United States, meanwhile, is gaining a more favorable reception in some African states. Seen as less encumbered by colonial baggage, Washington has signaled renewed interest in security and development cooperation after years of restraint. Think tanks have noted that Africa’s enduring importance to global priorities, including its growing population, expansive natural resources, and significant trade potential, motivates American engagement. [attribution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace]
The expanding American and Russian footprints appear to coexist for now, with analysts predicting a cautious balance rather than a full-blown proxy war in the Sahel. The goal for both powers, observers suggest, is to safeguard their interests through stability and selective partnerships rather than open, direct confrontation. [attribution: Saldaña]