Bloomberg writes that recently freezing weather in eastern Ukraine is causing the batteries of drones and radios to freeze and need to be charged twice as often. It is also stated that the reconnaissance drones were hampered by poor visibility, which “sometimes silenced the guns on the front.” -6°C remains in eastern Ukraine, next week the temperature will rise to -2°C.
The difficult search conditions were also confirmed by Ed Arnold, a former British infantry officer now working at the Royal United Services Institute. According to him, weather affects not only the efficiency of equipment, but also the performance of personnel.
“Pedestrian patrols, who can normally travel 15-20 km a day, suddenly only travel five kilometers because they burn more calories, they have to carry more food, and they can’t do that much in difficult conditions,” he says. .
However, since frozen ground can withstand it, sub-zero temperatures make it easier for heavy equipment to pass. But Bloomberg writes that the expected winter advances on both sides may not happen now or in a longer cooling period.
Military analysts in Ukraine and elsewhere say that the passage of military equipment is “just one of many factors that commanders must consider before risking another major attack.”
The state of the army and the available reserves, equipment and ammunition are much more important. According to Arnold, morale, mobility and logistics can be undermined in cold conditions. The agency states that “for any offensive breakthrough”, soldiers must stay away from the bunkers for days.
Arnold stated that analysts are most concerned about the changing weather. If frosts give way to thaws, wheeled vehicles can get stuck in the mud, leaving the assault troops without supplies. At the same time, for example, tanks will be able to work, but only if the fuel trucks arrive on time.
Due to the thaw, soldiers could be left without food, gunners without ammo, and the ability to move quickly after firing (to avoid counter-battery fire).
Ukrainians have a much better option. With what they already have and all that the West has given them, I would say they have a chance for a big breakthrough – so take your time,” Arnold thinks.
But the head of the strategic modeling department of the New Geopolitical analytical center in Kiev, Igor Levchenko, believes that the further development of the conflict will depend not on the weather, but on the success of each of the parties in the conflict. as well as the restoration of their strength in the spring.
The recently announced delivery of armored combat vehicles from the USA, Germany and France, and signs that NATO-standard tanks may follow, will better prepare Ukraine for a new offensive.
However, the agency writes that Ukrainian authorities are concerned that Russia may launch an attack from Belarus, located just 150km north of the Ukrainian capital.
Fighting continues in the Bakhmut (Artemovsk) region – “slowly but dwindling resources.” Bloomberg states that the Russian Armed Forces are trying to capture Bakhmut and nearby Soledar, and that Ukrainian troops have attacked Kremennaya and Svatovo.
The agency argues that the fighting in Bakhmut “will remain intense whatever the weather, as Russian commanders have changed tactics, relying on infantry to break through the defenses” and replace them with large artillery barges.
Earlier, the deputy head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that the capture of Soledar paved the way for the complete capture of the republic under the control of the Russian army. And he believes that the liberation of Artemovsk and Seversk will allow to destroy the front line in the DPR.