This tropical cyclones They are among the most devastating natural disasters in the world. Climate change will cause an increase in the frequency and intensity of these extreme events in the North Atlantic in the near future.potentially creating more hurricanes and strongerwhy every time greater economic loss in coastal areasAccording to a scientific study by the authors ofReducing greenhouse gas emissions to reduce this risk“.
The work, led by scientists at Iowa State University in the United States, included high-resolution global climate model simulations that applied sea surface temperature models associated with active and inactive hurricane seasons in the Atlantic in historical and future climate scenarios.
The results leave no room for doubt: tropical cyclone frequency could increase 66% during active North Atlantic hurricane seasons by the end of this century.
These active seasons are characterized by the conditions of the climatic phenomenon known as “girl”It occurs when unusually cold surface waters are recorded in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and warmer surface temperatures are recorded in the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
The number of tropical cyclones will also increase during inactive North Atlantic hurricane seasons, then probably 34%..
Inactive seasons often occur during conditions. ‘Child’It occurs when there are warmer surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and cooler surface temperatures in the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
In addition, simulations carried out within the scope of the project, increased intensity of tropical storms during active and inactive hurricane seasons.
‘El Niño’ and ‘La Niña’ in the eye of a hurricane
According to the researchers, the results of the study shed light on the importance of nutrition. Consider climate changes, taking into account not only average temperatures but also variability from one year to the next. when analyzing future projections of extreme events.
‘El Niño’ and ‘La Niña’ are periodic events (they take between three and seven years to occur) that regulate the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean and have effects on the global climate. They cause drought, loss of agricultural crops, forest fires, torrential rains, floods and landslides.among other disasters, millionaire economic losses.
“Unfortunately, it’s not good news for people living in coastal areas,” says Christina Patricola, professor of geological and atmospheric sciences at Iowa State University and the study’s leader. “Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic will be even more active in the future and hurricanes will be even more severe“, Explain.
“Taken together, the simultaneous increase in the number and strength of[tropical cyclones] Increased risk to the North Atlantic “Future continental climate,” study collects.Anything that can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can help reduce this risk.Patrick adds.
A tropical cyclone A storm system characterized by a closed circulation around a center of low pressure that produces strong winds and abundant precipitation. When swirling winds exceed 39 miles per hour (62.8 kilometers per hour), the system tropical storm. At more than 120 kilometers per hour, hurricane in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific oceans and typhoon in the northwest Pacific.
Terrible ‘African East Waves’
Patricola and another collaborator group have published a second research paper on tropical cyclones, published as before, in the journal ‘Geophysical Research Letters’. The document is a possible description of the relatively constant number of tropical cyclones observed globally from one year to the next.
Is it possibleafrican east wavesKey to sustained tropical storm generation (low pressure systems that pick up humid tropical winds over the northern Sahel of the continent, raise them into thunderclouds, and move east to west)?
Using regional model simulations, the researchers filtered out these low pressure ‘waves’ forming in Africa and were able to confirm that they did not change the seasonal number of Atlantic tropical cyclones.
But they observed that tropical cyclones were strongerhe is maximum occurrence of storms changed from September to Augustand that the formation site moved from the North African coast to the Gulf of Mexico.
As a result, ‘African east waves’ don’t help researchers estimate the number of Atlantic tropical cyclones each year, but they seem to affect important characteristics of storms, including intensity and possibly where they landed..
“We undermine the problem of estimating the number of tropical cyclones,” says Patricola, who concludes that more work is needed to uncover all the “secrets” of these extreme phenomena.
Reference work (1): https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100267
Reference work (2): https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100590
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