Inside central station kyiv christmas tree lights flickering as usual at this time. This year, however, they are powered not by electricity, but by the dynamo of a passenger exercise bike and the wheels of an electric train that has been salvaged from the ruins. irpinIn the first months of the war, one of the capital’s suburbs was heavily bombed. Russian Army He tried to conquer Kiev. bombings Kremlin against energy infrastructures Frequent water, electricity and heating cuts keep much of the country in the dark, but weeks of war rage are incapable of changing the situation. front lines. Winter has muddied the war, but it will only be a temporary stalemate.
“We’re kind of dead point“, assures Andreas Umland, analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies. “None of the parties made a new statement. offensive operations big, but they’re getting ready to do it. Both sides have been weakened after these final months of all-out war.” At the end of October, the Kremlin finally admitted it was facing off. serious lack of weapons To equip his army in Ukraine, a confession that contributes to the assessment british intelligenceHe was warning aboutcritical shortcoming” from artillery pieces Y precision missiles in Russian arsenals.
Something similar happened to Ukraine periodically due to difficulties in Ukraine. western industry to replenish the ammunition burning on the front in time. Average Ukrainians this summer 6,500 balls per dayAccording to NATO sources quoted by the ‘New York Times’, 45,000 daily from Russia. In a recent interview with ‘The Economist’, General Valery Zaluzhny, The man who led the war on the Ukrainian side confirmed that the current priority of his people has passed. hold your positions, increase your resources Y improve air defense to prevent attacks on the energy system.
Patriotic anti-missile system
One wish, the second, will be fulfilled as soon as possible Patriot missile batteries promised by the president this week Joe Biden during the visit of his namesake Volodymyr Zelensky to Washington. “I am convinced that we can defeat this enemy,” Zaluzhny said in the same interview. “But I need resources. 300 tanks, 600 or 700 armored vehicles Y 500 Howitzer guns. However, I think it is completely realistic to go back to the February 23 lines,” he added. Vladimir Putin.
But this winter vacation is unlikely to last long. Both Moscow and Kyiv are preparing major attacks to remove the obstacles to the war in its first months 2023. As usual, the Kremlin is much more discreet about this, but there are many who think they will try it. Reoccupy northern Ukraine from Belarus. Or at least it will create the conditions for it to be a viable option as well as close. “The goal is to force Ukraine to divert part of its army to the Belarusian borders and reduce its forces in the region. Donbass and south facade“, says Tadeusz Iwanski of the Warsaw-based Center for Oriental Studies (OWS).
New front from Belarus
A similar reading to that by Mikhailo Samus of the Kyiv-based New Geopolitical Research Network. “They will try to occupy the center” Rivne Nuclear Power Plant and at the same time cut one of the parts. logistics ways Entry point for Western weapons, but the main purpose of the operation is to destroy Ukraine stop their counter attacks east and south,” and the Russian military to the country of Alexander Lukashenko, where satellites have detected new open roads along the border with Ukraine.
“Lukashenko does not want to send his people to Ukraine, but his small maneuvering space Knowing the Belarusian reality well, Iwanski says, “because its economy is largely dependent on Russia and because its Army is so integrated with the Russian army it is practically an extension of it. For the time being, experts agree that the Kremlin does not have the support of the former dictator’s Army.” even if he had enough army to invade Belarus from there.
But Ukraine is also waiting for the opportunity to relaunch counterattacks that have allowed it to prepare several areas in recent months. “There are three possibilities,” says Samus of Kiev. “Insist on Donbas, try to disrupt the continuity of the occupied lands. Melitopol Y Berdyansk, or cross dnieper river In Kherson province.” Ukrainians are good at playing poker and have managed to surprise the Kremlin several times as to their true intentions.
Kyiv continues to telegraph them, but it may just be a distraction strategy. ” Armed Forces of Ukraine They won’t stop,” said the defense minister a few days ago, Oleksi Reznikov. “When the ground freezes and becomes firmer, we will continue our counter-attack and mobilization to liberate our regions,” he said.