American scientists have shown that the phenomenon of “hot hand” in basketball really exists. An article about this was published in the journal PLOS One.
For a long time there was a belief among basketball players and fans that a player could turn on the “hot hand” mode, which allowed him to shoot many successful shots in a row. Many coaches, commentators and researchers doubted that this was possible, and a number of successes were explained by mere luck: after all, a coin can also fall to one side several times in a row. But “hot hand” has become part of basketball culture, and in the computer game NBA Jam, a virtual ball lights up after several consecutive points are scored by the same player. These debates are renewed with each new impressive series, for example Stephen Curry of the Golden State Warriors in 2021. goal 105 three-pointers in a row in training.
Konstantinos Pelecrinis of the University of Pittsburgh and a colleague set out to test this myth with statistical methods to see if players could actually warm up. Many previous studies have focused on a single shot type: free throw, three-pointer or special shot. However, in a real game, the rolls are rarely the same.
That’s why the experts developed a statistical model that analyzes shots based on many factors: who shot, distance to the basket, type of shot, distance to nearest defender, who was closest defender, whether the ball was met after the pass, and more. Such an analysis became possible only thanks to improved sports statistics in American basketball, the scientists themselves could not have watched so many matches.
With this model you can predict the chances of success of any roll. If we compare the actual percentage of players hitting in a successful series with the model’s predictions for the same game situations, we can find out if it’s really a “hot hand”. For example, if a player in the same situation scores only 46 percent according to estimates from the same situations, in reality, the phenomenon does exist if he will shoot 55 percent of the shots in the same situation.
Scientists analyzed the games of 153 basketball players who scored at least 1000 shots in the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons. Shots after one, two, three and four consecutive hits were taken into account. If we take all players as a whole, the chance of a third shot after two hits is 1.9 percent lower than the model predicts – that is, the hand is “cold”, not “hot”. .
However, when the players are looked at one by one, the picture changes and the phenomenon of warm hands begins to show itself in some people.
The 30 players studied had statistically significant winning streaks where the percentage of hits differed significantly from the model’s predictions. On average, these players experienced a 2.71 percent increase in accuracy on their third innings and 4.42 percent and 5.8 percent in their fourth and fifth shots, respectively.
The researchers note that having a “hot hand” does not guarantee that the player will score from any position. For example, this phenomenon is often shown by players whose position does not involve long-range shots. Scientists have hypothesized that the “research and use” schema might work in basketball when the player initially looks for the best avenues and options for action, finds and applies them until they are tired or the opponent can adapt. For example, you can find a weak link on defense – a less skilled defender – and attack in its own area.
“It is important to remember that the phenomenon we discovered is not related to what fans call the ‘fire hand’. Perhaps it is related to the ability of some players to seek suitable opponents for them and use them for series of hits,” the scientists say.
The authors of the paper don’t expect their paper to put an end to the debate about the “hot hand,” but they hope their methodology will aid new research on this problem. Additionally, closer analysis of the behavior of players in a successful series can help coaches encourage “warm hand” ability in their players.