France votes in times of war and election uncertainty

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This war in ukraine France determined its presidential campaign on Sunday (in the first round), and its second round will be held on April 24. France has experienced one of its election cycles in the midst of one of the worst war conflicts in Europe since the Second World War. strangers remembered in the last ten years. The Russian invasion could have sparked fruitful discussions about France’s role in the world, the role of energy and nuclear weapons, or measures to counter inflation and the energy crisis. But many of these important questions have been discussed superficially. The main interest fell on the election uncertainty, highlighted by the roller coaster of the polls.

“There a voltage political scientist Jean Petaux reassures El Periódico. According to recent opinion polls, which should be taken with a grain of salt as they tend to fail, the president Emmanuel Macron He will take first place with 27-25% of the votes, but will follow him closely Deniz Le Pen (25-20%) and third Jean-Luc Melenchon (18-16%).

Both the far-right candidate and the rebel-left candidate have seen a dazzling rise in the polls over the past two weeks. In the end, will the National Reunification candidate be able to defeat the centrist leader? Possible. However, the following cannot be ignored: polls over-inflated Le PenAs has happened many times in the last five years and there is an unexpected surprise for Mélenchon (ecosocialist).

After such a strange campaign – there was no television controversy before the first round – one should be wary of categorical predictions. After months of indifference, most covid-19 and warThe French seem to be interested in the elections at the last moment. The latest polls predict high abstentions, close to the record low turnout of 71% in 2002, but lower than expected a week ago. Tension is also dominant in this sense.

Macron’s waning campaign

In fact, it seems like centuries have passed since the first weeks of March, when Macron surpassed 30%. Russian attack on Ukraine “national unity” effect for the benefit of the centrist leader. That’s why he’s dedicated himself to campaigning on Twitter by showing a ‘look’ to the naive ones. Volodymyr Zelensky, It’s as if France were also at war and regularly communicating with the Ukrainian president and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, about his parallel phone call. In addition to the failure of these diplomatic efforts, the “flag effect” in favor of the French president seems to have disappeared. This partly explains the drop in polls.

Another turning point in Macron’s weakening campaign was the presentation of the election program on March 17. with the announcement of the measures on the right, such as the establishment of Minimum retirement age of 65 yearsHe made an obvious nod to the electorate of the Republicans (partners of the PP in France) by conditional on the granting of a minimum income to the fact of reading or working 15 or 20 hours, or by refusing a general increase in teachers’ salaries. candidate Valérie Pécresse was reduced to 10-8%. But it has created unease among left-wing voters, who would have to beat Le Pen if the same duel were hypothetically repeated in 2017.

RN leader “a fake social program, because it does not finance”, criticized Macron in an interview on ‘Le Parisien’ on Friday. After refusing to take part in any television debate before the first round – although this decision has raised more suspicion in the age of social networks and television shows, no outgoing president had done so before – the centrist candidate has multiplied media interventions in recent days. progress of his ultra rival.

The campaign was also blocked. “Caso McKinsey” Added to the fact that McKinsey has not paid taxes in France since 2010, according to a Senate report for counsel, on executive overspending. The national financial prosecutor’s office announced Wednesday that it has opened a “serious money laundering” investigation. by financial fraudAgainst this American multinational company, which has some executives with close ties to Macron.

Bad news for the centrist leader, too, was the family’s decision this week to condemn the Home Office and Education Ministries of the murdered professor, Samuel Paty. He accuses them of not supporting him in the face of threats before he was beheaded.

“The Zemmour attack helped Le Pen”

All these obstacles faced by the president contributed to the RN candidate cutting the distance dangerously. So much so that some polls of the hypothetical runoff between the two predict a victory for the centrist leader. with only 51%. Le Pen was there when Macron awoke.

The ultra candidate promoted his electoral career based on Cervantes’ principle of making hardship a virtue. leading a party very sensitive financial situation With a somewhat mobilized militant base—investigated and also convicted of numerous corruption cases—Le Pen campaigned cautiously in the media. Basically, he devoted himself to visiting markets in small and medium-sized towns or farms.

Because of his closeness with Putin and the fact that he received it, the war in Ukraine could sink him. Two loans from Russian banks. But the war became a practical advantage for him, increasing inflation and the crisis in energy prices. RN has focused its campaign around the following issue: purchasing powerThe main concern of the French.

“The sudden outburst of polemicist Éric Zemmour has given him a lot. improve your imageStop being creepy, says political scientist Christèle Lagier, who specializes in far-right constituencies. However, according to this professor at the University of Avignon, this trivialization of his image “turned him into a politician like any other, and this may instill distrust in some of his most antisystemic voters.” “I’m not ignoring that it will result in a result similar to 2017 (21%) or even lower,” she says.

Returns to Sol Mélenchon

Rebel Jean-Luc Mélenchon is confident that the second-round threshold is not as high as recent polls suggest. leader disobedient france (Partners of Podemos in France) became the third man in this presidential election after making a similar comeback as in 2017, where he finished fourth with over 19% of the vote. Recent surveys already predict 18%. Despite being at 10% at the beginning of March, it’s climbing, primarily thanks to the beneficial voting effect on the left. ex-socialist candidate Segolene Royal or François Hollande’s former Minister of Justice, Christiane Taubira, asked to vote for the senior eco-socialist leader.

One of the hopes of the rebels is that the most ambivalent voters will be the remaining progressive formations, from the anti-capitalist left to the socialists, including the greens. “We can make the biggest political bifurcation Mélenchon cried out at his last rally in Lille last Tuesday, broadcast via holograms in 11 different cities.

“I don’t think it’s very likely that Mélenchon will qualify for the second round, because the upward curve is similar to Le Pen’s”, says political scientist Jean Petaux. “There will be a second round between the rebel and the ultra candidate, Macron will be the third,” says this political scientist, suggesting an unlikely scenario. But if it did, there would be a big earthquake.

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