The report titled ’10 New Insights in Climate Science’, approved by a panel of 67 scientists from 24 countries and released during COP28, distills ten key messages about the planet’s current climate situation. This initiative is a collaboration among Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Since 2017, the study has addressed the international scientific and political communities, aiming to ground policy decisions in solid science. Each chapter includes policy guidance, reflecting the demand for science-based action. For COP28, CREAF, the Center for Research and Applications in Forests in Catalonia, notes its participation as a notable contribution from Spain, emphasizing the call for transformative policies to confront the climate emergency.
The report warns that while land-based and marine carbon sinks are absorbing CO₂, current science indicates this buffer is under stress. The future response of natural systems remains uncertain as climate change progresses.
CREAF researcher Marcos Fernández, one of the chapter’s contributors, explains that historically terrestrial ecosystems have taken up roughly 30% of atmospheric carbon and oceans around 25%, but future uptake is likely to fall short of expectations. This shortfall may be linked to shifts in fire regimes and other change drivers.
Efforts to cut emissions through nature-based measures are an urgent priority. These approaches can boost supplementary carbon storage and help offset emissions that are difficult to eliminate. Examples include restoring tropical forests, peatlands and wetlands.
10 important messages
1.- The 1.5°C limit may be surpassed. Ongoing warming beyond pre-industrial levels is increasingly likely. To lower the risk of irreversible damage, it is essential to shorten the duration and intensity of warmth above 1.5°C. Evidence shows that a rapid, sustained reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required, but current trends indicate that such reductions have not yet materialized. A combination of bold actions and systemic changes is necessary to keep temperature rise within feasible bounds.
2.- A decisive move away from fossil fuels is essential. A swift and orderly exit from fossil dependence is needed to stay within the Paris goal. The carbon budget is tightening, and both governments and the private sector should halt new fossil projects, retire older infrastructure, and accelerate the deployment of renewables. Wealthier nations are urged to lead this transition and support lower-income countries, ensuring a fair and just pathway that protects the most vulnerable populations.
3.- Large-scale carbon removal is required. Policies must support effective removals of CO₂ through natural means at a significant scale. Negative emissions will be part of the solution to address hard-to-eliminate emissions and cool the planet, but they cannot replace the need to drastically curb anthropogenic emissions. Natural mitigation capacities, especially forests, should be paired with rapid, broad implementation of additional methods, backed by stronger governance and oversight.
4.- Forests and oceans may reduce their productivity as CO₂ levels fall. Relying too heavily on natural sinks is risky because their future behavior is uncertain. So far, emissions have risen while sinks have grown, but it remains unclear how robust these sinks will be with climate shifts. Therefore, efforts to reduce emissions using nature-based solutions remain a priority, as they complement sinks and help offset difficult-to-eliminate emissions. This segment is contributed by CREAF researcher Marcos Fernández.
5.- Broader international cooperation is essential. Joint governance is needed to address intertwined climate and biodiversity crises. International agreements under the UNFCCC and the CBD should align more closely. Notable steps include ensuring climate finance for nature management and strengthening cooperation between the conventions.
6.- Extreme events interact. Compound events involve multiple risks that can magnify impacts beyond a single event. Recognizing and preparing for these interactions is crucial for risk management and emergency response. California has seen droughts, heat waves and dust storms that affected people and agriculture.
7.- Glacial loss in mountains is accelerating, threatening downstream water supply for billions and increasing flood risks. The fastest ice retreat occurs in regions like the Himalayas and polar areas, posing long-term water security challenges for downstream communities.
8.- Inaction and inertia are rising in regions facing climate risks. Some populations cannot relocate or lack the support to move, and existing institutions fail to account for this inertia or to meet the needs of those exposed to climate hazards.
9.- Climate justice should be strengthened with practical tools for adaptation. Integrating justice dimensions into adaptation planning can boost resilience and reduce vulnerability.
10.- Food systems reform supports equitable climate action. From production to consumption, food systems influence mitigation and resilience. Interventions must be designed with equity in mind and implemented inclusively, involving diverse stakeholders across scales.
Full document: https://10insightsclimate.science/
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