США и Украина: риск эскалации и вооружение

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Citing a Pentagon source, the British Times reports that Washington is rethinking its assessment of Moscow’s threat and no longer insists that Kiev refrain from striking Russian soil. The shift follows Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Earlier, U.S. policy tied Ukrainian aid to the condition that weapons would not be used to attack Russian territory, limiting equipment to avoid provoking a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

The Times notes that the United States is now less concerned that Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil could trigger a sharp Moscow response. The Pentagon reportedly feared that Moscow might retaliate with tactical nuclear weapons or by striking NATO nearby if Kyiv escalated.

“We still use the same upgrade calculations, but the fear of escalation has changed since the beginning. The situation has changed,” a source said.

According to the source, U.S. assessments shifted after Russia’s actions caused widespread suffering and persecution of Ukrainians. Washington is likelier to supply longer-range weapons, though officials want to avoid making a public example of Kyiv receiving a green light for attacks on Russian soil.

“We wouldn’t tell Kyiv to refrain from shooting at Russians in Russia or Crimea. It is up to them to decide how to use their weapons. Still, we insist that only the Ukrainian military comply with international laws of war when using American-supplied arms,” the unnamed Pentagon official said.

The Times’ interlocutor added that Russian civilians should not be targeted and that Washington opposes killing specific individuals. “To our knowledge, Ukraine adheres to these conditions,” the source stated.

The changing nature of hostilities

The Times notes that with the Pentagon’s tacit approval, Ukrainian forces have become more aggressive and persistent in striking targets inside Russia, using unmanned aerial vehicles, including modified reconnaissance Tu-141s.

The shift could allow Kyiv to receive longer-range weapons it has long sought, such as ATACMS ballistic missiles with a 310 km range, and Gray Eagle unmanned aerial vehicles, which can be equipped with Hellfire missiles.

The newspaper says fears of escalation would rise sharply if Washington approves longer-range weapons capable of hitting Russian soil. Still, Pentagon officials have signaled they are seriously considering Kyiv’s requests for longer-range arms. “Anything is possible,” said a senior U.S. Defense Department official.

“The best option is for Ukrainians to win quickly. That makes sense to provide ATACMS, the Gray Eagle, and to prepare a batch of main battle tanks.”

Help from the USA

Russia accused the United States and its allies of helping Ukraine target weapons. On December 10, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, claimed that Americans participated in coordinating HIMARS MLRS operations using U.S. satellites and military data to set coordinates, program the MLRS, and monitor effectiveness.

Nebenzya said Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles targeted strategic airfields like Dyagilevo and Engels using the American GPS system. He warned that Russia would document all such acts by the United States and its allies, noting potential legal consequences for everyone involved.

State Department response

U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that after attacks on Russian airfields, the United States did not help Ukraine strike targets outside its borders. “We do not encourage Ukrainians to attack Russian territory and we do not enable such attacks,” Blinken said. He added that the United States does not have detailed information about the strikes on Russian airfields and that Washington will continue to provide weapons to Ukraine. “Together with our partners, we will ensure they are equipped to defend themselves, their land and their freedom,” Blinken said. He also reminded that Ukraine’s electricity, heat and water infrastructure have suffered, underscoring the daily hardships faced by Ukrainians.

On December 5, Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed attempts to hit the Dyagilevo and Engels airfields with jet drones. The airports are located roughly 500 and 750 km from the Ukrainian border, respectively, and serve Russian strategic aviation. The agency said drones were intercepted, but fragments damaged the skin of two aircraft slightly, resulting in three deaths and four injuries among soldiers.

Alexander Kots, a Russian war correspondent and Human Rights Council member, said there were no entirely safe strategic facilities left in Russia. Following the Russian operation in Ukraine, border regions such as Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk reported multiple attacks.

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