cover sea ice Arctic It has been decreasing every month since the early 1950s, and moreover, it has almost halved during the summer months.. The amount of sea ice that survived the polar summer has decreased by 13% per decade since the late 1970s, and estimates show that The region may experience its first ice-free summer by 2040.
This rapid meltdown is not only harmful to the surrounding coastal cities and small island nations; It could have a lasting impact on global weather patterns, according to research published in the journal Science. Nature Communication and this was done by a group of scientists from the University of Albany (New York, USA).
In this document, scientists reveal that the magnitude and pattern of sea ice loss in the Arctic can directly affect the climate phenomenon known as El Niño. Moreover, As the Arctic loses seasonal ice, the frequency of strong El Niño events increases significantly, or by a third.
El Nino current a complex weather model It occurs when the surface water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is warmer than average and easterly winds are weaker than normal. These attacks, which usually occur every few years, unusual weather conditions and sometimes, dangerous worldwide, including droughts, floods and severe storms.
“Before this study, very little was known about whether or not it happened. decrease Arctic sea ice has the ability to influence strong El Niño events,” said the lead author, Jiping Liu, Associate professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences at Albany College of Arts and Sciences.
He added: “El Niño is a major climate phenomenon and driving force of climate variability responsible for large and varied social impacts. Our study shows for the first time that massive loss of Arctic sea ice is directly impacting global climate extremes, including an increase in the frequency of strong El Niño events.”
With less ice, El Niño will be more intense
Liu and colleagues ran a series of simulations. time interval models He relied on variables from the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice to determine the impact of Arctic sea ice loss on El Niño events. Before running the simulations, they determined the Arctic sea ice cover for three periods: 1980–99, 2020–2039, and 2080–99.
The simulations were created using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model, A global climate model that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of Earth’s past, present and future climate states.
Comparing the results, researchers No significant changes were found in powerful events El Niño in response to moderate loss of sea ice in the Arctic, consistent with satellite observations to date. However, as ice loss continues and the Arctic becomes seasonally ice-free, The frequency of strong El Niño events increases by a third.
“After decades of research, there is a general consensus, if not universal, of the frequency of El Niño events, especially extremely strong events. will increase with the warming caused by the greenhouse effect. Liu stated. With Arctic sea ice projected to continue to decline dramatically, it was important to assess whether the predicted increase in a strong El Niño was directly linked.”
To separate the role of Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers an additional experiment The Arctic sea ice cover has stabilized based on historical simulations, but carbon dioxide levels have increased 1% in 100 years from their 2000 level.
Thus, the experts came to the following conclusion: Between 37 and 48% of the increase in strong El Niño events towards the end of the 21st century will be attributed specifically to the loss of Arctic sea ice. “It’s becoming increasingly clear that climate models need to realistically simulate Arctic sea ice decline to properly size El Niño variability,” Liu said.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32705-2#Sec1
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Environment department contact address:crisclimatica@prensaiberica.es
Source: Informacion
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