An international team of scientists from Finland, France and the UK has assessed the possibility of a collision between our Milky Way galaxy and the neighbouring Andromeda galaxy occurring within the next 10 billion years. The study was published on: Portal non-peer-reviewed scientific publications arXiv.
Andromeda is located 2.5 million light-years away from the Milky Way. It is approaching at a speed of 110 kilometers per second. Previously, astronomers believed that the galaxies would inevitably meet and merge to form a new system.
As a new study shows, such an outcome is not a foregone conclusion and the chances of a connection with Andromeda are 50/50.
“We found that uncertainties in the current positions, motions, and masses of all galaxies leave room for very different outcomes, and that there is about a 50% probability that the Milky Way-Andromeda merger will not occur within the next 10 billion years,” the authors noted in the scientific study.
According to astronomers, previous estimates did not take into account the “mixing factor” – the gravitational influence of smaller galaxies in the Local Group (including the Milky Way and Andromeda) that can push galaxies completely away from the collision.
The researchers used observations from the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes to derive estimates of the masses, motions, and gravitational interactions of the four largest galaxies in the Local Group, then fed this data into a model that simulated a range of possible scenarios.
Taking into account the interaction of the four largest galaxies in the Local Group (the Milky Way, Andromeda, the Triangulum Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud), scientists found that the probability of a collision between the Milky Way and Andromeda can be estimated using a coin toss calculation. And if the merger really happens, it will happen no earlier than in 8 billion years.
Earlier scientists discovered Signs that Andromeda is merging with another galaxy.
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Source: Gazeta
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