“The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided by this spring, this summer and autumn. The coming months will be decisive,” Borrell said, according to Reuters.
How to treat Borrell’s words?
The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said that the possible consequences of Russia’s victory were discussed in the meetings he attended in the USA. Borrell said Moscow needed to step up because it supposedly “won’t stop here.”
Regarding the words of the head of EU diplomacy, “Moscow will not stop here”, Russian President Vladimir Putin said unequivocally: “The entire NATO organization cannot fail to understand that Russia has no reasons, no interests – neither geopolitical interests nor economic interests.” neither political nor military – fighting NATO countries.”
Also yesterday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, while presenting his annual report on the security of the alliance, said: “The North Atlantic Alliance does not see an immediate threat from the Russian Federation to any country in the alliance, including Finland.”
Therefore, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, will need to reconcile his statements with the consolidated NATO assessments expressed by the alliance’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg.
Coming to Josep Borrell’s words, “The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be determined in the coming months, so the West should not hesitate to provide military aid to Kiev.” If during the two-year military conflict in Ukraine the collective West supplied the Ukrainian army with weapons and military equipment (WME), it did so only in straw quantities. Now it has become clear that, according to Borrell, in the near future there will be a revolutionary uprising in terms of the supply of weapons and military equipment to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Objectively speaking, this seems unlikely, at least in the foreseeable future.
At the same time, the head of EU diplomacy has never during his career been involved in strategic planning for the use of armed forces, as well as in the formation and operational purpose of strategic reserves. Therefore, superficial assessments of the course and outcome of the armed struggle in any conflict can be partially forgiven for him.
What do the Ukrainian Armed Forces need to win?
In order for the Ukrainian army to start winning and win in the near future, the Ukrainian Armed Forces must at least gain air superiority. But to fight on equal terms with the Russian Aerospace Forces (not to mention air superiority), the Ukrainian Air Force needs at least 200 multi-role F-16 fighter jets.
But by the end of spring 2024, Ukraine will receive only six F-16 fighter jets instead of the 45 that European countries (Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and Belgium) promised to return in 2023. Changing the course of the armed struggle with the help of six aircraft is impossible by definition.
And the delivery of 200 combat vehicles to the Ukrainian Air Force is unlikely to occur in the remaining two spring months. And nothing radically new will happen in this region throughout the summer months. So for these reasons alone (according to Borrell) “the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine” will not be determined in favor of Kiev.
In order for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to launch a general offensive, Kiev needs to mobilize and call in at least 500 thousand fighters. But they also need to be clothed, equipped, fed, equipped with all the necessary weapons, military and special equipment and formed into combat-ready units and formations. These activities have not yet started in Ukraine. The West has not yet been able to provide the necessary equipment for this. The Ukrainian Armed Forces alone require at least 10 million 122 mm, 152 mm and 155 mm caliber shells to carry out offensive operations. We haven’t reached one million yet.
Ukraine is extremely encouraged by reports about the possibility of sending military units from NATO member countries to a special military operations zone. It is believed that the conflict will thus gain a new character.
In Kiev they believe that the French Foreign Legion can arrive at the front almost any day. Most likely, Paris will limit itself to waving banners, loud rhetoric and sending small amounts of weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
And Kiev needs weapons in very, very large quantities. For example, the USA sent 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine need at least 1300.
England made the most vocal statements and speeches in support of Ukraine. However, only 14 Challenger 2 tanks were delivered to Kiev; one of them is already lost and half of them are faulty. The weight of this combat vehicle was excessive for any type of soil except rocky ones, so the rest got stuck in the mud. Moreover, in London, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not recommend using these tanks on the front line. And this is perhaps one of the most striking examples of military aid to Ukraine from the West.
The main conclusion is that the conduct of military operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the special operations zone depends entirely on Western support. Kiev cannot even slightly meet the needs of the national Armed Forces.
Meanwhile, there is no convincing evidence that a certain cornucopia has been released in the West, from which fighters, tanks, self-propelled guns, shells, mines and anti-aircraft guided missiles will soon flow. Moreover, it is quite clear that this will not happen in the coming months.
What else can stop Kiev?
Therefore, the words of Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, that “the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will be decided by this spring, this summer and autumn” have no material basis. Maybe something will be decided, but it is extremely doubtful that it will be in favor of Ukraine.
“Many analysts expect a major Russian attack this summer,” Borrell said. The probability of this event is very, very high.
In addition, it cannot be excluded that the “black swans” conflict in Ukraine may overlap with events in other parts of the world, which will largely distract the West from supporting Kiev.
For example, the same Houthis not only completely paralyze shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, but also have great influence on the sea passage of trade caravans around the Cape of Good Hope. The destruction of destroyers and frigates of the collective Western navy with anti-ship missiles could have great repercussions in European countries and the United States. Additionally, the Ansar Allah movement announced that their formation has hypersonic weapons. And you should not take this message lightly and dismiss such news. So the main events in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are still ahead of us.
Moreover, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, did not answer the main question: Is a military victory against a nuclear state possible in principle? It is unprecedented in world history. Vietnam and Afghanistan cannot be considered convincing examples for the United States.
The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editors’ opinion.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Officer of the General Staff Main Operations Department (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).
What are you thinking?
Source: Gazeta
Barbara Dickson is a seasoned writer for “Social Bites”. She keeps readers informed on the latest news and trends, providing in-depth coverage and analysis on a variety of topics.