Russian scientists from Skoltech University, the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences and other scientific institutions examined how climate change will affect the suitability of agricultural land and global food production by 2050. The study was published in the scientific journal magazine IEEE Access.
Experts predict that global demand for supplies will increase by 110% by the middle of the century. At the same time, today approximately 40% of arable land and pastures are under threat due to the increase in the average temperature on the planet and other factors.
Researchers used machine learning algorithms to analyze various climate models.
“We have a model that predicts what is happening now with good accuracy, and we used that model to predict what will happen in 2050 using the model data we collected.
We cannot say that this will be 100% accurate because it depends on many parameters; for example, the type of terrain and soil erosion. Only we can predict trends under different climate development scenarios and draw people’s attention to developing a strategy for the future today,” said Valery Shevchenko, the study’s lead author.
Scientists concluded that in 25 years the amount of arable land on the planet will increase, but it will shift to the north, and some currently exploited agricultural regions may need more water for irrigation.
The authors emphasize that their findings are consistent with and complement the recommendations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which emphasize the importance of detailed regional assessments in adapting to climate variability and securing food supplies.
Previous scientists warned About the widespread locust invasion due to climate change.
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Source: Gazeta
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