Poland faces new fight between Donald Tusk and Jaroslaw Kaczynski

Polls favor Kaczynski, 74, who is deputy prime minister in the government led by his co-religionist Mateusz Morawiecki. It is wrong to say that Kaczynski is the second man of the Warsaw administration. Because he is the person who organizes the distribution of duties and dominates national politics. His power extends to his presidency of the country, which he has held since 2015. Andrzej DudaHe was promoted to head of state as a PiS candidate.

Tusk’s commands

Tusk, 66, the leader of the liberal party, won the ballot box twice. Civil Platform (PO). The first was in 2007 when he became prime minister. Thus ended the unique phase of ultraconservative double supremacy in Poland represented by the Kaczynski twins, Jaroslaw and Lech; The first was the head of the Government, the second was the chairman. Tusk’s first phase at the head of the executive coincides with a traumatic period in Poland’s recent history: in 2010, the presidential plane crashed at a Russian airport. Smolensk. There were no survivors among the 96 people on the plane on which the country’s political, civilian and military elite were traveling. Lech Kaczynski. They attended the 70th anniversary of the massacre KatynWhen thousands of Polish prisoners were shot by the Soviets in the forest.

Successive investigations have supported the thesis that the crash was caused by bad weather conditions, dense fog and pilot error. PiS and Jaroslaw Kaczynski have since accused Tusk of either alleged negligence in preparations for the trip or failure to properly investigate the alleged “Russian leadership” in the disaster. A year after the tragedy, Tusk was re-elected as head of government.

PiS’s enmity with Brussels

The survivor of the Tusk and Kaczynski twins faces the polls again at a time when PiS has been at the head of the executive for eight consecutive years and there is constant conflict with Brussels. This is a two-way conflict and European Commission (CE) responded with files, condemnations or sanctions against judicial reform; This is an attack on the independence of the judiciary.justice– against restrictions freedom of the pressagainst attacks against groups LGBTI or against the so-called ‘Tusk law’, under which PiS aims to investigate alleged “Russian agents”, including the leader of the opposition. Under PiS, abortion and any formula from Brussels for the distribution or relocation of petitioners asylum.

The leader of the liberal opposition is accused of being a liberal Brussels puppet and in addition, GermanyA country where Warsaw demanded 1.3 billion euros for the destruction of the Third Reich. Tusk left his post in 2014 to take over as head of the Polish Government. Council of European option supported by the then chancellor Angela Merkel. PiS accuses Tusk of being some kind of “agent” of Brussels and of destroying the Polish Army while in power, in accordance with the so-called “Merkel doctrine” to “not anger Moscow”. The Morawiecki Government has taken it upon itself to disfigure this administration for every new multi-million dollar investment in Defense, which will allocate 4% of its gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024.

invasion of ukraine reinforced these accusations. But this is not the only accusation in the campaign against Tusk. PiS recalls its government’s family benefits and improvements in pensions to support the most disadvantaged classes. This is a point ignored by the liberal Tusk, who now has no choice but to swear at every rally that there will be no disruptions if he wins the elections. social helps.

Positive predictions for the ruling party

Tusk could not recover his positions in the polls. PiS is predicted to have a 36% vote lead, five to six points above PO. However, the opposition leader led a massive mobilization in Warsaw 15 days before the elections. This was the call”million heart walk“, a symbolic figure underestimated by the opposition and supported by the Warsaw authorities. However, the mayor also needs to be remembered. Rafal TrzarkowskiHe is from PO and is a presidential candidate in 2020 on the opposition platform.

If the predictions come true, neither PiS nor PO will be able to govern the country alone. Kaczynski’s party was in power in this last parliament with the support of right-wing formations. His next ally may be a nationalist ConfederationFrom so-called libertarians who support cutting social aid to PiS, far right pure and harsh.

Tusk’s PO, openly supported in his campaign by the German Party leader of the European Popular Party Manfred WeberWe can count on support from the left Lewica or call Third Wayconservative by nature.