Next year, Spain will manage to place its public administrations’ deficit below the 3 percent of GDP threshold set by European stabilization rules, and will remain at 2,957 percent of GDP, according to new estimates. International Monetary Fund (IMF). The international organization predicts a rate of 3.921% for 2023, in line with the Spanish Government’s forecast.
However, in the medium term, IMF projections predict the following: HE open For the remaining years on the horizon, Spain is expected to remain around 3.4% of GDP Temporary macroeconomic projections that will last until 2028
The IMF’s forecast for Spain’s 2024 deficit is as follows: In line with the government’s planA rate of 3 percent is expected for next year. However, the IMF’s forecasts for the coming years are worse than those in the Government Stabilization Program, which predicts a deficit of 2.7 percent in 2025 and 2.5 percent in 2026.
Public debt
referred to Public debt, organization managed by Kristalina Georgieva waiting for this route to close 107.3% of GDP compared to 111.6% in 2022will continue to decrease in the coming years 104.7% in 2024 and 103.9% a year later, remaining around 103.8% through 2028.
For now, the upward correction in the level of GDP realized last month National Institute of Statistics (INE) allowed partial dilution of the weight of public debt over gross domestic product; thus reaching 111.2% of GDP in June, four tenths below the end-2022 figure.
As particularly emphasized Ministry of EconomyThe increase in nominal GDP of over €20 billion would meet the fiscal targets set in the Stabilization Program and reduce the reduction to below 110% by 2023.
Above average growth
In its “World Economic Outlook” report presented in Marrakech on Tuesday, the IMF states that Spain is the major developed economy that will grow the most this year and next year, with growth of 2.5% and 1.7% respectively.
In the long term, the organization’s forecasts predict that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.1% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.One year later, GDP growth will be 1.7%, and in the last year it will be 1.6%.
In such a way, The Spanish economy will continue to grow above the euro zone average over the next few yearsThe IMF predicts a growth of 0.7 percent this year, 1.2 percent next year, 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026, while growth of 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent for 2027 and 2028, respectively. predicts. .
Employment and unemployment
Growth of the Spanish economy It will enable us to continue to reduce the unemployment rate, which is the highest among euro countriesThis rate, which was 12.9% last year, will be 11.8% in 2023, will increase to 11.3% in 2024 and will remain around 11.1% in the following years.
In this sense, IMF forecasts predict that the number of people working in Spain will continue to increase this year and until it reaches 20.73 million in 2023, the only year for which data is available. A record number of 20.93 million employees in 2024, exceeding the maximum number of 20.58 million employees reached in 2007.
Inflation this year is 3.5 percent
On the other hand, IMF predicts interest rate will increase inflation will close this year with an average of 3.5 percentStarting when the price increase moderates, it will rise to 3.9% next year, rising to 2.1% in 2025 and around 1.7% in subsequent years.
Thus, the inflation rate in Spain, which will remain well below the 5.5 percent average predicted for the eurozone this year, will be equal to 2.1 percent in 2025, exceeding the Twenties Zone inflation, which is predicted to be 3.2 percent next year. . As of this date, the IMF’s euro zone inflation forecast is expected to be 2 percent in 2026 and 1.9 percent in 2027 and 2028.
Source: Informacion
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