Funcas cuts growth forecast for Community to 4.2%

So, in the case of the Valencian Community, the working office of the savings banks foresees a breakthrough this year. 4.2%in line with the national average, but below 5% estimates that the region’s economy grew during the last year.

In this regard, they recall from Funcas: Community GDP fell 10.1% in 2020drop something less intense than the national average –10.8%- due to the greater resilience offered by the services sector and, in particular, the slightly lower contraction in the sector number of international tourists.

Likewise, he industry it also fell less, but its contribution to GDP growth was more negative due to the sector’s weight in Valencia’s productive structure. In effective terms, the decline in Social Security membership was drastic at 10.1%, as were the number of people employed in EPA terms, placing the unemployment rate at 16.2%.

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Last year, autonomy was achieved recovering about half of the lost and GDP grew by 5%, according to the agency’s estimates. Of course, with some contrasts. On the negative side, it is noteworthy that exports grew below the national average and exports remained under pressure. decrease in car sales, although the overall industrial activity index has moved in line with the rest of the country. On the positive side, it was one of the regions experiencing a crisis. further recovery of international tourism. The number of tourists arriving in 2021 was 42.2% of the 2019 figure.

Social Security membership growth was particularly intense in 2021, making it one of the regions where it grew the most at the end of the year compared to pre-crisis. The average annual unemployment rate fell to 15.9%, still significantly higher than the 2019 rate.

Looking at 2022, expected GDP growth is 4.2%, in line with the national average. This Rebound effect from the normalization of international tourism. will be less More than any other region as it makes significant progress in 2021. The weight of the automobile sector, which is one of the sectors most affected by supply problems, will outweigh this. rate Unemployment will fall to 13.1 percent Annual average.

In any case, with these estimates, autonomy will be by the end of this year. 98.4% of GDP before the pandemicSlightly better than the national set, which will stay at 97.7%.

As for the rest of the autonomies, Balearic Islandswith 9.9%; Canary Islands, with 7.8%; Y AndalusiaWith 4.4%, these will be the communities that will grow the most this year due to the attractiveness of tourism; duration Cantabria, Aragon, Castilla y Leon, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha It will record the lowest numbers at 3.3%.

In general terms, they note from Funcas that “the effect of the rebound effect from post-detention normalization and the removal of restrictions is less pronounced than at the beginning of the recovery.” In addition, they warn that there are several factors that negatively affect economic activity: production cost, most famine increase in industrial materials, inflationThe uncertainty brought about by the war and the increase in interest rates planned for the second half of the year, which reduced the spending capacity of families.

In any case, the economy of the autonomous communities will continue to rise due to the recovery of tourism activity and consumer spending patterns and the impact of European funds. In addition, the excess savings stock accumulated in 2020 and 2021 is expected to make it possible to soften the negative impact of inflation on the purchasing power of households.