In less than a decade, the planet’s north pole may begin experiencing its first summers without a trace of ice.. This worrying prediction has already been raised for the next decades, but the accelerating progression of the climate crisis has caused the prediction to be pushed forward, according to a study published this Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. If it continues like this, HE Arctic can survive its first summer without sea ice in the 2030sTwenty years ahead of the worst-ever forecasts proposed.
The scientific community has long warned of the risks it faces. one of the most important frozen ecosystems of the planet. The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), considered the largest ever to study the effects of this crisis, warned that the Arctic has suffered damage of almost unprecedented magnitude. For example, records over the past ten years annual extent of arctic sea ice its reached lowest level since at least 1850. And ice levels recorded at the end of last summer were lower than at any time in the last 1,000 years.
Annual extent of Arctic sea ice over the past decade has reached its lowest level since at least 1850.
If it continued like this, the predictions predicted that the North Pole would live. first months off the ice from 2050. However, the climate crisis more extreme scenarios. Now, according to a research team from Pohang University (South Korea), this forecast has deteriorated significantly. “Even in the low-emissions scenario, models suggest that we will see a dramatic reduction in Arctic sea ice. Also from 2030 onwards, the Arctic I can start living the summers without ice“Warn the experts.
human influence
The analyzes reveal once again that the reduction in sea ice is due to “human impact” and “increased greenhouse gas emissions”. influence of factors as natural as solar radiation And volcanic activity This appears to have a minimal effect on the progression of the phenomenon. This is the conclusion reached, in a broad sense. largest report ever published On the past, present and future of the climate crisis, it concludes that “human activity is certain to have warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land surface”.
When it comes to the Arctic, more and more studies are warning that this region of the planet is warming almost four times faster than the rest of the world. Historical records show that between 1979 and 2021 the Arctic Ocean warmed by 0.75°C per decade. in the Eurasian region, near Svalbard and Novaya Zemlya archipelagoThe thermometers appear to rise. 1.25 degrees per decade during the last forty years. Equivalent to seven times the global average.
So what happens when the ice runs out in the Arctic? As the authors of this latest analysis warn, the melting of the north pole “will affect human societies and natural ecosystems because alters marine activitywill accelerate heating the arctic and will further change the carbon cycle”. In this sense, the meteorologist Ernesto Rodriguez Camino warns of “impacts of an ice-free Arctic” will be noticeable even beyond the polar regiondue to “feedback” processes, among others.
“The effects of an ice-free Arctic will be felt even beyond the polar region”
“This job reduces the window of time we have to move forward in the implementation of harmonization measures [frente al cambio climático]”, warns the expert affiliated with the Spanish Meteorological Society in his statements to the Spanish Science Media Center.
Source: Informacion
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