US election: Republicans are empowered in final part of campaign that exploits fear of crime

The 30-second commercial has been airing on local New York City television for weeks. Paid by the campaign. Lee Zeldin, Republican gubernatorial candidate The midterm elections next week seek to remove Democrat Kathy Hochul from office. Controversy abounds, including using footage of an event that took place in California, using others from events before Hochul took office, or that of a black man in a mental crisis carrying a piece of gun, not a gun. metal and was later shot five times by the police. Y working.

For the first time since Republican George Pataki surprised and kidnapped Patriarch Mario Cuomo from Albany in 1994, democrats face serious The prospect of losing the New York government, and suffer fiasco in lower house races in a case Joe Biden won in 2020 with 23 points. Hochul’s comfortable advantage, which he gained by more than 16 points in September, has been slashed by leaps and bounds, due to voter action against the Supreme Court’s decision to lift constitutional protection of the right to abortion and Zeldin’s closeness to Donald Trump. And one of the keys to this turn is, Where the Republican focuses on crime and mistrust.

Zeldin is not alone. In countless races around the country and following a classic handbook, Republicans reiterate as one of their main messages the condemnation of Democrats’ alleged responsibilities in the United States. worsening securityreal or perceived and accusations that they are”soft to crime“. And this is a message that resonates among citizens who, according to polls, see crime as a crime. The second most important issue after inflation and the state of the economy and in some places like New York, even at first. According to the polls, voters also believe Republicans are better able to tackle the problem.

Distortion and perception

While crime rates in the US and in major cities like New York are well below what they were in the 1990s, they began to rise during the pandemic. The lack of aggregated data at the national level makes it difficult to determine exact figures, but what is certain is that perception this situation it’s getting worse and concerns Really. And according to a Gallup poll, 56% of the population believe there is more crime where they live (highest recorded since 1972) and 78% believe they are climbing in the country.

This growing sense of insecurity was actually at the heart of the Democratic Party. Eric Adams A former police officer who promised to take a strict stand on crime won the New York mayoral election last year. And while murders in the city have dropped 14% and gunshot cases 13% this year, violent crime has increased 34%, with 38% more robberies and 32% more robberies.

The problem isn’t just big cities or states run by Democrats, as Republicans are trying to denounce. Inside OklahomaFor example, twice as many homicides were recorded last year as those in California or New York. But it cannot be denied that there is a concern and discontent Moreover with some progressive policies Condemned by Republicans, as efforts reform in criminal justice or bail systemA discontent sparked this summer when a citizens’ vote dismissed San Francisco’s progressive attorney general.

Republicans also attributed the deterioration in security to the George Floyd protests’ efforts to reform or cut police funding. they bend over protected media ecosystemfueling your tactics fear Together intense coverage of events (FoxNews, for example, has spent twice as much time as rival networks on crime since Biden entered the White House.) And once again, they’re using controversial tools like painting handbooks from handbooks. incoming messages racism.

Inside Wisconsinfor example, against advertisements Mandela BarnesDemocratic candidate for vice-governor and Senate, blackthey called him “different” and “dangerous” (She combines her image with Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib). At a rally for Republican candidates in Nevada, which he attended with Trump, Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville assured Democrats that they were “criminal” and wanted “reparations.” for slaves) people who commit crimes“.

Democratic response

Democrats reactedIn some cases, such as Hochul in late New York, trying to fend off offensive attacks and their successes or measures in the fight against crime and also republican inconsistencies. They condemn lies and racism, and above all, Conservative opposition to the regulation of firearms. At the same time, they underline the inconsistency of portraying themselves as a law and order party. minimize the attack The Capitol, where the crowd violently attacked the police. “If you don’t condemn what happened on January 6, don’t tell me you support law enforcement,” Biden said in a speech in August.

The power of crime and insecurity as a central issue in this electoral cycle is also money. According to analysis of CNN AdImpact data, the Republican field only spent the first three weeks of October on ads focused on this topic. $64.5 millionA quarter of the total spent on advertising, while Democrats spend 58 million (15%).

Who will win in the election will be determined, but what is certain is that crime will play a decisive role, not just in New York. His government took center stage in his race OregonIt’s also vital in what Democrats may lose for the first time since 1982 and in the decisive battle for the Senate in Wisconsin or between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz.