Predictions surrounding the Golden Globes guideposts have been shifting in the days leading up to the ceremony. The nominations were unveiled earlier in December, and on Tuesday, January 10, pundits and fans alike weighed in with their forecasts. The Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles hosts the HFPA gala, and a composite forecast on Gold Derby, gathering expert opinions, media forecasts, and reader votes, offers a snapshot of likely winners in the major categories.
Cinema
Best Film (Drama): The Fabelmans from Steven Spielberg remains a steady favorite in the drama field, consolidating a clear lead over peers. Avatar: The Sense of Water, Elvis, and Top Gun: Maverick continue to contend for the next spots, but the Spielberg entry stands out in most predictions for its narrative weight and critical reception.
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical): Everything Everywhere All at Once heads the list, with The Banshees of Inisherin close behind. The unique blend of genre-defying storytelling in EEAAO keeps it at the forefront, while Bansheins the strong challenger in the crowd of contenders.
Best Director: Steven Spielberg’s work on The Fabelmans maintains a commanding position, though the writing team of Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, has gained momentum in recent days and could influence the outcome in this category.
Best Actress (Drama): Cate Blanchett is widely favored for her performance in TÁR, yet Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans and Viola Davis in The Lady Macbeth project present credible options that keep the race competitive and unpredictable.
Best Actor (Drama): The race narrows to two lead contenders, Austin Butler for Elvis and Brendan Fraser for Whale. Betting markets had leaned toward a Butler edge, but Fraser’s breakout moment has kept him squarely in the conversation.
Best Actress (Comedy or Musical): Michelle Yeoh, star of Everything Everywhere All at Once, remains the singular front-runner, with Margot Robbie in Babylon offering a persistent challenge but not enough to topple Yeoh in most forecasts.
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical): The field features a strong frontrunner, Jeremy Allen White for The Bear. While Daniel Craig’s nomination for Daggers in the Back: The Mystery of the Glass Onion has drawn attention, predictions still lean toward White’s lead role in The Bear as the likely winner.
Best Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is widely cited as the likely victor, with other candidates considered surprises if the mood shifts among voters.
Best Foreign Language Film: The contest is projected to be tight between RRR from India and All Quiet on the Western Front from Germany, with Decision to Leave from Korea also showing strong support in the mix.
Best Series (Drama): Separation, also known as Severance in some markets, leads the betting over The Crown and House of the Dragon, reflecting strong reception for its premise and execution.
Best Series (Comedy): Abbott Elementary has emerged as a favorite in the comedy category, though The Bear and Only Murders in the Building still draw substantial attention from voters and prognosticators alike.
Best Actor (Drama): Bob Odenkirk of Better Call Saul holds a notable advantage in many predictions over Adam Scott for Severance, highlighting the strength of his longtime role in the series landscape.
Best Actress (Drama): Predictions focus on a tense duel between Zendaya for Euphoria and Imelda Staunton for The Crown, with both performers delivering acclaimed turns that keep the outcome highly contested.
Best Actor (Comedy): The field emphasizes Jeremy Allen White’s standout performance in The Bear, while Steve Martin’s work in Only Murders in the Building remains a solid counterpoint in the discussion.
Best Actress (Comedy): The race for最佳女演员（喜剧） presents a close tie at the top between Quinta Brunson for Abbott Elementary and Jenna Ortega for Wednesday, with Brunson inching ahead in several analyses.
Best Miniseries or Movie Made for Television: The White Lotus, in its second season, appears poised to secure the prize, with Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story following as a strong contender in the aftermath of its reception.