The Eurovision 2012 winner, the Swedish artist Loreen, known for the hit Euphoria, is leading the betting odds to repeat the triumph this year with the song Tattoo. Spanish hopeful Blanca Paloma sits in fifth with Lorca Nana, a position that mirrors the first wave of speculation following the festival’s early rounds.
The Eurovision Song Contest 2023 unfold in Liverpool, England, shaping up to be one of the most memorable editions in recent memory. In this climate, Spain is eager to make a significant statement, a point often echoed by analysts covering the event.
One month before the festival runs from 9 to 13 May, Loreen remains the bookmakers’ favorite with a roughly 39% probability of securing the crystal microphone with Tattoo. Blanca Paloma sits in a mid-pack position, while EaEaA clans to a 5% chance for the Spanish entry this edition.
News from bookmakers has Finland’s Käärijä in second place with Cha Cha Cha, a 15% shot, followed by Ukraine in third with Tvorchi’s duet and the song Steel Heart at 11%. Norway and its queen of kings, performed by Alessandra, hold the fourth spot with around 6% odds.
The growing momentum of Elche’s runs in recent national selections has seen the singer climb into fifth place, hinting at a possible late surge. There is renewed talk about Chanel and her performance, a week after the festival’s publication window, nudging her into a more competitive light.
Historically, the Cuban-Spanish entrant finished tenth in the current betting markets last year and ultimately placed third in the actual contest, behind Kalush Orchestra of Ukraine and the British performer Sam Ryder with Spaceman. The previous year, the Ukrainian victory by Stefania and the strong showings by the British representative added to the sense of unpredictable outcomes in Eurovision betting.
mistakes
Bookmakers have a track record of missing the mark, sometimes resulting in financial losses for those who bet on the favorites. The 2016 forecast, for instance, leaned toward Russia’s entry, only for Ukraine to triumph with Jamala. The same year, Blanca Paloma appeared with similar odds to a lofty position, a reminder that predictions can shift drastically in the final stretch. A year later, the tale repeated itself: Italy was deemed the likely winner with Francesco Gabbani and Not the Occidentali’s Karma, but Portugal won with Salvador Sobral and his ballad, marking a historic first for the country in Eurovision history.
And since there is no three without a fourth, 2021 mirrored the trend when Malta’s Destiny claimed early favor, only for the Italian duo Maneskin to capture the title with Zitti e buoni. These episodes reinforce the idea that betting markets often misread the room, and occasional surprises do occur.
highlights
Despite those cautions, the betting market has occasionally predicted winners, as seen with Måns Zelmerlöw in 2015, Netta in 2018, and Duncan Laurence in 2019. The most recent real winner, Kalush Orchestra from Ukraine, claimed victory with a total of 631 points, a result shaped by 192 from the jury and 439 from the televote. The win sparked debate and was interpreted by many as a gesture of solidarity with Ukraine amid ongoing conflict.
Looking back at last year, there is still room to dream that Chanel could repeat a high finish, joining the ranks of notable performers who secured a top five. Loreen’s 2012 triumph with Euphoria is often cited as a benchmark, a performance once lauded by Eurovision fans as one of the competition’s all-time best. Chanel’s 2022 performance, marked by a striking Slomo interpretation, remains a potent memory for fans of Spain’s Eurovision journey.
Should Loreen replicate past glory, she would join a select group of artists who have won Eurovision twice. The exception remains Johnny Logan from Ireland, who achieved back-to-back victories in 1980 and 1987 with What’s Another Year and Hold Me Now, respectively. The ongoing conflict surrounding Ukraine has affected hosting decisions for this year, with the United Kingdom stepping in to host on behalf of the winning country after the disruption caused by the invasion.
Spain nonetheless finds itself in a renewed phase of Eurovision ambition, bolstered by the Benidorm Fest national effort that helped restore confidence and improve Spain’s showing in the European song festival. Chanel’s strong vote haul, including a substantial tally of 459 points, underscored Spain’s improved standing and eclipsed historic records from earlier decades. The country now waits to see how Chanelazo will perform in this year’s competition and whether Spain can secure another top finish.