Will Estibaliz Urresola’s debut film, 20,000 Bee Species, contend for the Golden Bear at the Berlinale? Could a Spanish entry secure the prize again just a year after a compatriot’s triumph? Historical data temper the optimism. Since the festival began, only seven directors born in Spain have earned the top honor, and three of them shared the prize ex aequo in 1978. When Carla Simón claimed the award for Alcarràs last year, it marked nearly four decades since the last Spanish winner. Women have directed only seven winning films since 1951, and even fewer have earned the prize for a first feature. In recent memory, the award has gone to two consecutive films from the same country on just three occasions.
To move beyond numbers, the debate turns to qualitative factors. Urresola’s film has drawn notably positive coverage from international critics and centers on a timely, provocative issue that resonates with juries: the family and social tensions surrounding a girl who experiences gender dysphoria. Whether Simón’s presence in the lineup helps or hinders the chances of victory remains uncertain.
Of course, considering a possible win for 20,000 Bee Species requires weighing other strong contenders. The three most likely competitors to claim the Golden Bear are not easy to predict. A tender love story from Korean-Canadian director Celine Song, Past Lives, entered the festival amid stellar reviews after a Sundance appearance and could challenge the jury if selected. A visually striking animated entry, Makoto Shinkai’s Suzume, has drawn enormous box office attention since its Japan debut and stands as a production that may need further recognition to achieve broad release. German filmmaker Christian Petzold’s new work, Afire, is often cited as a strong candidate given the director’s track record and the prestige of the Berlinale, though its genre as a comedy has sometimes tempered expectations at this festival.
for public health
The lineup for the final three titles in this year’s competition presents a mixed outlook for the winner’s circle. Chinese director Liu Jian’s second feature, Art College 1994, has been difficult to place in the running because discussions about the film’s artistic basis have been polarizing and, some will say, emotionally draining and painfully overstated.
Meanwhile, Till the Night by German filmmaker Christoph Hochhäusler remains a polarizing entry. It charts a web of criminal intrigue, follows a trans woman’s mischief, and explores a relationship between a woman and a gay police officer who harbors transphobic and abusive impulses. Some view the film as a tough, provocative satire; others see it as an uneven blend of genres.
On the other hand, the tribute to public health that Sur l’adamant is expected to receive seems unlikely this time. Nicolas Philibert, the French documentary maker behind Being and Having, brings a new project that situates a ship moored on the Seine as a health center for people with mental health challenges. The film reads as a heartfelt homage to a marginalized character and underscores the value of public health. Whether the jury will embrace this approach remains to be seen, and observers are close to a verdict.