Beyond simply flashing a smile, opening the mouth in astonishment, or applauding a wildly imaginative piece created by artificial intelligence, personal responses and anecdotes in listening vary from person to person. Now a bold study sheds light on the impact of this technology on the music industry. It quantifies the challenge ahead and shows how present it already is in the sector. How big is the challenge? As expected, very substantial. The natural follow‑up question is: how does generative AI fit into the arts, especially music? The answer unfolds in the pages that follow.
A study by the German consultancy Goldmedia, presented on a Friday in Madrid during events organized by the Society of Authors, Composers and Publishers for its 125th anniversary, estimates that by 2028 around 27% of creators’ revenues could be at risk due to artificial intelligence, amounting to about 950 million euros. The same report focuses on the French and German markets because it was commissioned by the authors’ rights societies in those countries. It projects roughly 2.7 billion euros in potential damage to the music industry over the next five years (2023–2028).
The study notes that in 2023 the generative AI market reached about 3.4 billion euros, with music accounting for 8% of that share, roughly 275 million euros. The analysis, presented by Klaus Goldhammer, chief executive of Goldmedia, forecasts that the industry impact from today through 2028 could multiply tenfold. Accordingly, about 71% of surveyed creators, roughly 15,000 authors from Germany and France, fear that AI could take their jobs. The report identifies electronic music as the most affected genre (54%), followed by urban/rap (53%) and music for advertising (52%). Notably, a major artist publicly voiced frustration when a track allegedly created with AI was attributed to him, illustrating tensions around authorial rights in AI‑assisted works.
Many professionals in the sector already report using AI in their creative processes, with about 35% confirming usage. The figure climbs sharply with age, rising to 51% among authors under 35. The survey indicates that 63% believe AI is likely to be adopted in the creative process for composing and drafting lyrics, and 44% anticipate AI being used for the full creation of songs.
Looking to the future of creativity, a significant portion of professionals emphasizes AI’s potential to unlock new forms of expression. In fact, 43% of respondents see fresh creative possibilities, underscoring the ongoing balance between risks and opportunities posed by this challenge. When asked directly about this balance, 64% of authors think the risks outweigh the opportunities.
Goldhammer stressed that, at present, there is no remuneration framework for artists when their songs are used to train generative AI models. Even if a piece of music becomes the foundation for developing the technology, artists do not receive financial compensation. As a result, 90% demand transparency and payment when their work is used for such purposes. The study cites cases already entering legal arenas, such as a 2023 dispute where major publishers and authors challenged a generative AI developer over rights and damages, underscoring growing tensions around compensation for AI training data. These dynamics highlight the urgent need for clearer norms and fair practices in the music industry as AI continues to evolve.