The price of Urals oil moved lower, dipping below $52 per barrel as markets tracked independent assessments from Argus Media Ltd., a respected price reporting agency. Bloomberg cited Argus as observing that at present a barrel of Urals is cheaper than the ceiling some European Union members want to apply to Russian oil and related products.
Oil prices began slipping on the preceding Friday and, by the evening of November 28, settled near $51.96 per barrel. These figures refer to pricing at two key Baltic and Black Sea trading hubs, Primorsk on the Baltic and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea.
Argus Media Ltd. is an autonomous pricing firm whose forward-looking estimates influence how Russia calculates export taxes. The November price quoted here represents the raw material cost plus delivery to the tanker; it excludes freight, insurance, and inland transport costs which are borne separately by the buyer, typically a merchant trader.
Bloomberg notes that current price forecasts from Argus and similar independent bodies have become less transparent since 2022, making long-term contract pricing harder to gauge. Reports indicate that Russia is offering substantial discounts to buyers in China and India, with Argus and Platts noting discounts up to $30 a barrel in some cases. However, Goldman Sachs analysts cautioned on November 23 that such large discounts to Indian and Chinese buyers may have been overstated, suggesting actual October discounts were closer to $10 a barrel.
European Union member states have yet to converge on the precise marginal price for Russian oil. The Financial Times reported broad support for a range around $65 to $75 per barrel, though Poland has pressed for a lower line around $30, arguing that the maximum price should reflect current market conditions. Politico cited Baltic states as not seeking a price above $60 per barrel.
In contrast, several European nations have advocated maintaining the highest possible ceiling for Russian oil, with Greece cited by Western media as hosting one of the world’s largest fleets of oil tankers. Malta is noted as another party positioned toward higher ceiling levels.
Politico and Bloomberg indicated that EU talks on the oil price ceiling could resume in the coming days, with all 27 EU members required to vote on any resolution. At the same time, the debate continues within the G7, and The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States has kept a relatively high price cap to allow continued Russian exports without creating shortages or price spikes.
The marginal price cap for Urals is planned to come into effect on December 5, with Russian oil products following on February 5, 2023, under the eighth package of sanctions. On November 24, Kremlin officials dismissed the price ceiling as an inexplicable measure and hinted at possible consequences for market stability.
Spokespersons emphasized ongoing analysis, noting that European calculations include several unusual figures that complicate the decision. Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president’s press secretary, described some European numbers as difficult to understand while signaling a measured approach to the final decision.
President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed in September that Russia would not supply oil or other energy resources to nations backing price ceilings, citing contractual obligations and the primacy of Russia’s economic interests. The stance has been framed as non-negotiable with respect to energy exports.
In November, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that Moscow would remain a dependable supplier within the bounds of pre-contracted commitments and market rules. He indicated that if other nations attempt to impose a price ceiling, Russia could redirect supplies to alternative buyers or adjust production levels to reflect market realities, maintaining stability for its own economy while responding to external policy moves.