During the March 5 auction, the Turkish lira fell below 2.9 rubles for the first time, according to data from the Moscow Exchange. By 13:55 Moscow time, the lira traded at about 2.92 rubles, signaling a notable weakening in a relatively short window.
Analysts point to persistent inflation in the region as a primary driver. In February, Türkiye reported a new price surge, with consumer prices rising 67.1% year over year, up from 64.9% in January. This rapid price growth underscores the pressure on the lira and the broader macroeconomic challenges facing the Turkish economy.
Part of the pressure on the lira stems from ongoing settlement issues between Türkiye and Russia. In January, the trading volume of the lira reached 13.9 billion rubles, a figure that is nearly one-fourth of December’s level, highlighting shifts in currency flows and the evolving demand for Turkish currency among Russian participants.
In the broader FX market on Tuesday, the U.S. dollar moved within a range of 90.9 to 91.5 rubles, while the euro traded between 98.8 and 99.3 rubles. No single factor appeared to provide a strong tailwind for the ruble, though some market observers emphasized the role of a tight monetary stance in Russia and the ongoing implementation of foreign exchange earnings sales under presidential directives as mitigating forces.
Anton Kravchenko, who heads the shares department at a major investment management firm, noted that the ruble faced no immediate catalysts for a sharp decline. He cited the central bank’s restrictive monetary policy and the government’s FX intervention program as key supports that help anchor the currency amid global volatility and regional risk sentiment.
There have also been discussions among Turkish business circles about broadening the list of international trading partners, with some pushback toward including Russia in a non-bank trading framework. This topic reflects attempts by Turkish firms to diversify settlements and reduce reliance on traditional banking channels, a move that could influence cross-border liquidity and currency demand in the near term.
Meanwhile, Russians traveling to Türkiye have encountered friction with payments for accommodations, a reminder that currency volatility can directly impact travel and tourism flows between the two economies. Such real-world effects complicate the economic outlook for both countries, where exchange rate dynamics, inflation, and policy responses are intertwined with consumer confidence and international commerce.
In sum, the Turkish lira’s recent weakness against the ruble comes amid a constellation of factors: surging inflation in Türkiye, shifting capital flows, and the interplay of bilateral settlements with Russia. Market participants will be watching how inflation data, policy signals from the Turkish central bank, and the operational aspects of cross-border settlements evolve in the coming weeks, as these elements collectively shape the currency terrain for both Russian and Turkish traders and investors.