The ongoing military actions by the United States, the United Kingdom, and regional forces in Yemen have not yet produced a clear, lasting disruption to world oil markets. Yet observers warn that Russian oil exports could face meaningful hurdles if the conflict widens or if Red Sea shipping lanes are blocked. This assessment comes from an interview published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta, with Kirill Rodionov, a researcher at the Institute for the Development of Fuel and Energy Technologies, offering a measured view on potential supply chain impacts. [citation]
Rodionov notes that roughly eight tenths of Russia’s seaborne oil and oil products destined for Asian markets transit the Red Sea. A shutoff of this corridor due to hostilities would force Russian exporters to seek alternative routes, primarily across the African continent. That diversion would likely extend delivery times by about 10 to 14 days, altering logistics planning for buyers and raising freight costs. [citation]
According to the expert, the loss from a closed Red Sea would primarily fall on Russian oil companies, given their heavy reliance on this route for profitable Asian shipments. The importance of the Red Sea corridor has grown since the European Union imposed restrictions on Russia’s oil imports, making export channels beyond Europe more central to Russia’s energy strategy. [citation]
In parallel, other major oil exporters in the region—Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia—would also feel the effects of any disruption to maritime traffic through the Red Sea. Rodionov, however, argues that for the United States, the conflict’s impact would be comparatively modest, with no immediate strategic disruption expected in American energy markets. [citation]
From his perspective, the Yemen hostilities are unlikely to persist for an extended period. He anticipates a restoration of regular shipping and a return to normal Russian oil flows through the Red Sea within the current year, should the regional situation stabilize. [citation]
Earlier reporting indicated that there were expectations of a need for EU energy diversification in 2023. During that period, a record volume of oil imports arrived from India, and some of the raw materials may have originated from Russian sources. This background underscores how geopolitical shifts can reshape oil trade patterns across oceans and continents. [citation]
Industry analysts, including Citi analysts, have discussed potential shifts in Brent crude price trajectories and warned that a broader surplus of crude products could emerge if supply routes are rerouted or disrupted. These forecasts reflect the sensitivity of global markets to changes in maritime logistics and sanctions, reinforcing the notion that oil markets respond not only to production levels but also to the reliability and security of key shipping lanes. [citation]
Overall, the situation highlights the interconnected nature of regional conflicts and global energy flows. A disruption in one corridor can ripple through multiple markets, affecting pricing, refinery operations, and contract negotiations across Asia, Europe, and North America. Stakeholders continue to monitor developments closely, ready to adjust expectations as more data becomes available and as shipping routes either normalize or evolve under evolving geopolitical pressures. [citation]