The preferential mortgage program launched in Russia during the 2020 pandemic year has become a key driver behind the rising prices seen in new housing across the country. Over the three-year span of the program, the cost per square meter in the primary housing market climbed by about 82 percent, reaching 141.2 thousand rubles. This trend was reported by RBC, citing data from CIAN, a leading real estate analytics platform. The impact of this policy has been felt across major cities and regional markets alike, reshaping buyer expectations and influencing how developers price new projects in response to the shifted demand curve.
In concrete terms, the price of one square meter in April 2020 was around 77.5 thousand rubles for housing under construction, and by the spring of 2023 it had surged to about 141.2 thousand rubles. The three-year trajectory of price growth under the preferential mortgage program proved uneven, with a robust 32 percent rise from April 2020 to April 2021, followed by another 32.8 percent increase from April 2021 to April 2022, and a more modest 3.9 percent gain from April 2022 to April 2023. This irregular pattern reflects how lenders, developers, and buyers adjusted to changing credit terms and seller expectations during different phases of the program’s evolution.
CIAN’s analysis highlighted that the sharpest per-square-meter price increases occurred in Krasnodar, Samara, and Omsk, signaling that regional markets with growing urban demand and active construction activity were most responsive to the policy. Real estate experts from Domklik also noted that concessionary mortgages contribute to higher price points in new-build projects, as lower financing costs tend to raise buyer willingness to pay and allow developers to justify premium pricing on newly offered units. This dynamic underscores how public sector interventions in housing finance can ripple through supply and demand, affecting project economics, borrowing choices, and the pace of new construction across different locales.
The program was announced on April 16, 2020, and was introduced as a crisis-response measure to support the construction sector during the pandemic. A clear objective was to expand access to home loans for a broader segment of the population, helping more Russians secure housing despite economic headwinds. Since its inception, the program has undergone several renewals with adjustments to terms and conditions. Presently, the preferential mortgage rate stands at 8 percent per year and is scheduled to run through 2024. In terms of loan size, the maximum amount allotted under the program is 12 million rubles for Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Moscow region, and the Leningrad region, while other regions can access up to 6 million rubles. The maximum loan term remains at 30 years, yielding longer amortization schedules for buyers and influencing the long-term affordability of new housing. These policy elements together shape not only buyer decisions but also the strategic planning of developers who respond to regional cap limits, project density, and the pace at which new inventories reach the market.