The aviation industry stands at a crossroads regarding fuel choices. While biofuels promise cleaner options and growing adoption, the current economics remain a barrier. Kerosene-based Jet A-1 typically costs less than biofuels today, and industry observers expect that price gap to persist for the foreseeable future. This economic dynamic complicates strategies aimed at cutting emissions in civil aviation, even as environmental targets press for faster adoption of alternative fuels.
Leaders in the sector have repeatedly noted that the road to a low-emission aviation system hinges on fuel prices, supply chains, and policy incentives. Converting more aircraft to biofuels requires prices that make the mix financially attractive for airlines, producers, and customers alike. In many analyses, the current price of biofuels remains a critical hurdle, while the cheaper Jet A-1 keeps presenting the more immediate affordability option for flight operations.
Industry executives and analysts point to a gradual shift. It is anticipated that biofuels will become more common in the fuel mix as production scales up, technologies improve, and regulatory frameworks support sustainable options. Yet, even with these developments, the consensus is that a complete parity with conventional kerosene is unlikely in the near term. The aviation sector often frames this as a question of incremental gains—reducing carbon intensity per flight while simultaneously expanding the use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) whenever feasible.
In parallel, the climate goals set by major industry bodies remain ambitious. Aretrospective review of commitments shows that many organizations have endorsed net-zero timelines with 2050 as a pivotal milestone for aviation. The practical takeaway from these plans is not a sudden switch, but a continuous improvement path that blends SAF deployment with efficiency gains, fleet renewal, and smarter operational practices. The evolving economics of biofuels and conventional fuels will shape how quickly these goals are pursued and how aggressively airlines invest in new technologies.
Recent analyses by global researchers highlight a trend toward higher fossil-fuel emissions if current patterns persist. By projecting emissions under established baselines, studies suggest that carbon dioxide from fossil fuels could rise in the near term, reaching levels not seen in decades. This underscoring of emissions risk reinforces the urgency for policy support, market mechanisms, and cross-border collaboration to accelerate the transition to cleaner fuels. The dialogue across governments, industry groups, and researchers continues to emphasize practical steps—scaling SAF production, reducing lifecycle emissions, and ensuring that aviation remains accessible and affordable while meeting climate commitments.
Overall, the trajectory for aviation fuels points to a future where biofuels play a larger role, but not one where they instantly replace conventional options. The pace of change will be influenced by economics, technology, and policy. As producers invest in larger plants and more efficient refining, the cost gap between biofuels and Jet A-1 could narrow—yet parity is not guaranteed in the near term. Stakeholders remain focused on a balanced approach that fosters innovation, ensures reliability for airlines, and advances the goal of a lower-emission aviation system within the global market. Citations and ongoing research continue to shape the understanding of what a sustainable aviation fuel landscape will look like for North America and beyond.