At the Federal Reserve’s upcoming gathering, economists expect a decision on whether to raise or hold the benchmark interest rate. The central question centers on how the Fed will adjust policy in light of evolving economic signals, with voices ranging from cautious optimism to measured concern.
Evgeny Koshelev, director of Rosbank’s Market Research and Strategy Office, argues that a rate increase would only be justified if the regulator updates its economic projections to reflect new trends. He notes that such revisions could alter the inflation outlook and the path of future policy moves.
Koshelev also points to several reversible factors, such as the substantial rate hikes already enacted since the last forecast update in July. These moves might temper the inflationary impact of recent consumer demand, potentially reducing the need for aggressive tightening in the near term.
Dmitry Kulikov, director of ACRA’s Government Ratings and Macroeconomic Analysis Group, emphasizes the lag between policy decisions and their effects on the economy. He explains that the results of earlier measures typically take months to become fully visible, complicating the evaluation of prior actions.
Observers broadly expect any rate adjustment to be modest, with a small uptick from 12 percent to around 13 percent the most likely scenario if a move occurs. For many analysts, the emphasis is on guiding inflation toward the Fed’s target while maintaining conditions that support growth and employment.
Market watchers also considered how other major central banks shape expectations. In particular, the impact of the European Central Bank’s decisions on currency pairs and global risk sentiment remains a relevant factor for traders and policymakers alike. (Source: TASS)
Earlier reports highlighted debates about the September 15 policy outlook, underscoring the uncertainty that persists as officials weigh the balance between price stability and economic strength. (Source: socialbites.ca)