In Russia, as in many other economies, cash still remains a stubborn fixture of daily life, a stance echoed by Sergei Dubinin, the former deputy chairman of the Central Bank. He spoke about a projection voiced by a representative of Goznak—the state security printing company—that the debate over the future role of cash could reach maturity around 2030. The overarching message is that the path toward a cashless society is not only a technological question but also an economic and behavioral one, shaped by how people choose to handle their income and taxes.
Dubinin’s assessment offers a pragmatic view: the basic technology for electronic payments could be fully prepared by 2030, yet the actual adoption hinges on the economic environment. If demand for anonymous or unrecorded transactions remains present, the incentive to move away from cash weakens. The logic is simple: when a portion of the population prefers not to record income for tax purposes, cash remains attractive. This tendency to underreport tax obligations has historical precedent, notably in the 1990s, when tax collection gaps were evident as both businesses and individuals operated in ways that limited revenue into the state treasury. In 1998, for instance, the budget faced a significant tax shortfall attributed to such behavior, illustrating how noncompliance can momentarily overwhelm even a recovering economy.
From the economist’s viewpoint, Russia’s economy shows resilience, with production continuing and tax collection remaining robust. Yet there remains a sizable segment of the population that is not ready to embrace widespread electronic systems and payments. The transition to full digital adoption requires more than just technology; it demands a shift in everyday financial habits and trust in digital platforms. Without broad-based usage, the push toward cashless transactions risks stalling, regardless of improvements in infrastructure.
Behavioral economics plays a crucial role in this dynamic. If a society organizes its economic behavior around transparent taxation, people are more likely to comply, which reduces the perceived need for cash as a fallback. However, achieving such a transformation requires that a large portion of the population is comfortable with electronic tools. In many regions beyond major metropolitan centers, card use and smartphone payments are not yet ubiquitous. The public reaction to QR codes provides a cautionary example: adoption can be uneven, and some groups may react against new systems that appear to increase oversight rather than convenience. This hesitancy could foreshadow a broader challenge to cash elimination, as concerns about surveillance and data security weigh on consumer willingness to shift fully to digital methods. While discussions could begin by 2030, it remains uncertain whether the social and economic structure would undergo a dramatic shift by then, a sentiment that resonates beyond Russia to other economies facing similar questions.
On September 10, during the International PLUS Forum titled “Payment Business and Money Circulation 2024,” Georgy Kornilov, director of the Goznak Research Institute, indicated that the fundamental question of cash’s necessity could enter public discourse around 2030. His perspective suggests a nuanced outcome: cash might continue to exist in some form, but the central issue would be the importance and role of cash within circulation rather than a wholesale replacement of physical money. This stance reflects a growing trend toward mixed payment ecosystems where cash and digital methods coexist, each serving different user needs and contexts.
Kornilov further noted that the current ratio in Russia favors non-cash payments, with a rough split of about 90 percent digital or electronic transactions to 10 percentCash in circulation. This distribution signals a strong shift toward digital payments, yet it also underscores the enduring presence of cash in everyday life, particularly in areas where digital access and financial literacy vary. The balance between digital convenience and cash accessibility continues to be a central policy discussion as regulators seek to maintain financial inclusion while promoting efficiency and traceability in payments.
In the broader context, the conversation around cash versus cashless systems is not purely a technical debate. It touches on trust, social norms, privacy, and the practical realities of service delivery. The decision to move toward a largely electronic payments framework involves coordinating technology, infrastructure, and user education, ensuring that all segments of society can participate without being marginalized. As nations across North America, Europe, and Asia weigh similar questions, the lessons drawn from Russia’s experience—this balancing act between innovation and inclusion—become part of a larger global narrative about money, power, and the future of everyday transactions.