The expected ceiling for the key interest rate was projected to stay at or below 20 percent through the end of 2024, based on a discussion with experts from the financial analysis scene. Georgiy Ostapkovich, who directs the Center for Market Research at the Institute of Statistical Research and Knowledge Economy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, shared these viewpoints in an interview with Lentoy.ru. His assessment reflects a cautious outlook on how policy moves might unfold in the near term and what that could mean for the broader economy.
According to Ostapkovich, the central bank’s strategy is anticipated to begin producing tangible results in the first quarter of 2025. He notes that, historically, increases in interest rates have correlated with a reduction in inflation, though the effect typically materializes over a period of three to five quarters. This means that if the central bank tightens policy now, inflation would gradually ease as liquidity tightens and price pressures ease over time.
Ostapkovich further explained that by the end of the year inflation could reach a plateau. He expects the trajectory to bend downward starting in the first quarter of the following year. If this scenario plays out, deposit rates might begin their descent, potentially at the end of the first quarter of 2025 or at the start of the second quarter. The timing hinges on how quickly inflation slows and how financial institutions adjust their funding costs in response to evolving monetary conditions.
In the near term, Ostapkovich predicts deposit rates will continue to rise. He attributes this to a balance of factors that still support inflation more than they curb it, even as the policy framework tightens. The economist projects that deposit rates could reach the 21 to 22 percent range, signaling the need for savers to weigh the timing of deposits against expected rate movements and the broader economic outlook.
He emphasized that the current environment has seen relatively elevated deposit rates in Russia, compared with historical averages. Before recent shifts, many six- to twelve-month deposits carried high annualized yields in the vicinity of 19 percent, with a weighted average rate around 18.54 percent. This context helps explain why savers might feel a push to lock in higher returns now, while lenders balance the risk of future rate changes against the cost of funds and credit demand.
For readers assessing their own financial options, the central takeaway is that interest rate dynamics remain sensitive to inflation trajectories and policy signaling. The path from higher policy rates to lower inflation is not instantaneous; it unfolds over several quarters as expectations adjust and real rates influence demand and spending behavior. In this atmosphere, households and businesses alike may see shifting deposit offers, with some financial products presenting notable opportunities or risks depending on timing and horizon.
Historically, the cycle of rate hikes and inflation moderation has varied by country and period. The current forecast underscores a gradual, data-driven approach where policy actions are evaluated against observed inflation momentum, labor market conditions, and external price pressures. The ongoing dialogue among economists, bankers, and policymakers centers on balancing the need to cool inflation with the aim of preserving growth and financial stability. As analysts monitor incoming data, the market will likely reflect revised expectations for both inflation and deposit yields, influencing savings strategies and investment planning across households and institutions alike. In this evolving landscape, informed decisions about timing, products, and risk will play a crucial role in shaping financial outcomes in the quarters ahead.