“Shot in the Lungs”
In a radio interview, Viktor Orban expressed a stark view of how the Ukraine conflict is shaping Europe. He argued that the European Union did not anticipate getting drawn into a prolonged war and that sanctions against Russia are hurting Europe more than they help Ukraine. He suggested that the EU’s approach has begun to damage its own economy, describing a situation where the economy feels like it has been struck and is struggling to breathe. This line of thought emphasizes vigilance to prevent the conflict from spreading to Hungary, while noting that the struggle extends beyond Ukraine to energy supplies as well.
Orban warned of two major fronts in this crisis. The first is the battle to stabilize energy prices, and the second focuses on preserving jobs. He claimed that Brussels already recognizes mistakes in the sanctions policy and that the high utility tariffs in Hungary complicate the country’s position. He reiterated Hungary’s longstanding opposition to sanctions that fail to aid Ukraine and harm the European economy. He even proposed a ceasefire with Russia as a possible way out of the crisis, arguing that peace could be the only viable path forward. Asked who benefits from continuing the war in Ukraine, he answered that Hungary would not be among them. He also observed that China is increasing its imports of Russian oil by taking advantage of western countries’ reluctance, while Europe bears the costs of the conflict and sanctions.
Alexandra Sentkirayi, a representative of the Hungarian government, described Europe as being hurt by the crisis, likening it to a bullet in the lungs. At the end of June, Sentkirayi suggested the possibility of an embargo on Russian gas, arguing that Europe would struggle to compensate for Russian energy supplies if an embargo were imposed. The message emphasized representing the Hungarian people at the EU Heads of State Summit in Brussels and warned that if sanctions proposals are not accepted, Hungary would state its position clearly. The comparison was that an oil embargo would be a setback; a gas embargo could be devastating for Hungary and other European nations, making it difficult to replace Russian gas.
“Shot in the leg”
On June 19, Crimea Senator Olga Kovitidi used the metaphor of a foot wound when describing Lithuania’s decision to block Kaliningrad on her Telegram channel. She warned that Russia would respond with a boomerang against the Baltic states, signaling a broader escalation. European authorities were also cited as having decisions that could provoke a Russian response, underscoring the risk of reciprocal measures in the region.
In comments on June 17, William Ruger, president of the American Institute for Economic Research, discussed the sanctions regime on Fox News. He characterized some U S measures as a shot in the foot, arguing that sanctions often fail to compel the targeted states to alter their behavior. He pointed out that Russia has benefited from higher energy revenues despite sanctions, highlighting how energy prices and global food aid subsidies illustrate the unintended consequences. Ruger noted that decades of research on sanctions show mixed results and cautioned that political decisions may appear to help taxpayers at home while producing adverse effects abroad. This perspective emphasizes the tension between policy goals and practical outcomes in the sanctions debate, especially regarding Ukraine and the broader economy.