The market for secondary real estate in major Russian cities is cooling as the broader economy slows, according to coverage from Kommersant and corroborating insights from industry observers.
Data from analytics firms, however, suggest this downturn has not yet translated into a sharp drop in average asking prices. In March 2024, CIAN.Analytics reported that the average price of secondary homes across 18 key regional markets stood at 142.8 thousand rubles per square meter, a 0.5% rise for the month. Etazhi placed the national average at 122.1 thousand rubles per square meter. These figures show resilience in the face of softer demand, driven by a mix of supply and buyer behavior across regions.
Alexey Popov, head of CIAN.Analytics, notes that while the supply pool has grown, buyers still face a thinner selection due to limited liquid lots. This gap between rising inventory and available high-quality, quickly tradable options helps explain why prices have not collapsed despite more listings entering the market.
Among the regional movements, Nizhny Novgorod posted the strongest monthly uptick at 1.9%, closely followed by Krasnodar at 1.2%. In contrast, Saint Petersburg experienced a price dip, with a decline of 0.9%. The regional dispersion underscores how local dynamics, from economic activity to job markets and mortgage sentiment, influence pricing power in different markets.
Ildar Khusainov, director of Etazhi, points out that competition to attract buyers is prompting discounts. The average discount in March expanded to 4.7%, up from about 3% in the previous period, and sellers are increasingly introducing properties at prices aimed at quick sale. This behavioral shift reflects buyers’ heightened sensitivity to financing costs and the hesitancy of some vendors to chase postwar demand levels.
In Moscow, the secondary apartment market showed notable stability, with prices essentially flat for the month, edging up by 0.1% according to CIAN.Analytics. The city’s unique demand profile, strong rental markets, and continued interest from investors help support a more cautious pricing trajectory even as other regions experience more pronounced volatility.
Analysts expect demand to soften further as mortgage rates rise and price growth cools, yet they do not foresee a broad, rapid decline in prices. Many sellers reportedly prefer to postpone transactions in the hope of more favorable conditions later in the year, rather than accepting sharp price cuts.
The broader policy backdrop is also shaping market expectations. Russia’s central bank has signaled a continued preference for stabilizing long-term funding options for households, and the housing deposit concept has been discussed as a potential measure to maintain affordability. The evolving policy landscape, combined with shifting lending conditions, will continue to influence buyer behavior and seller pricing strategies in the months ahead.
For buyers, the current environment translates into careful selection and timing. While entry points in some regions are still present, the absence of a large pool of highly liquid listings means purchasers often encounter a narrower choice of ready-to-move options. Market participants emphasize patience and diligence as essential traits for navigating the current cycle, with attention to regional nuances driving the best outcomes.
Looking ahead, the market’s trajectory will likely hinge on mortgage affordability, inflation expectations, and local economic health. In regions where employment dynamics remain strong and credit access remains relatively favorable, price stability could persist despite a softer overall demand, whereas markets facing slower growth or tighter lending conditions may see more pronounced price adjustments. Analysts will continue to monitor inventory quality, the pace of discounting, and the timing of transactions as signals of the evolving balance between supply and demand in Russia’s secondary housing market.
Overall, the narrative remains one of cautious moderation rather than sharp decline. Buyers are increasingly selective, sellers are more flexible on price to close deals, and the interplay between supply quality and financing conditions continues to shape the market across major cities.