The annual “shock predictions” from Saxo Bank of Denmark spotlight ten scenarios that could unsettle global markets when surprise events occur.
In their 2024 outlook, these projections were framed as the “End of the Road.” Saxo Bank’s investment leader Steen Jakobsen notes that 2024 should reveal a break from the continuing smooth ascent seen since the 2008 financial crisis, with a future that is uncertain and potentially perilous. The forecast suggests technology can both solve old problems and create new dilemmas.
According to Saxo Bank, the world might confront two broad crises in 2024.
The first centers on deepfakes. Generative AI is expected to move beyond a tool for efficiency into a genuine national security challenge. There are forecasts that a high-ranking official in a developed nation could be targeted with deepfake content. Such risks are likely to push governments toward tighter AI regulation, and the initial surge of excitement around AI limits may fade.
Following regulatory bans, venture investors could retreat from the sector. Public trust in AI-generated news might wane, and governments could enact measures that concentrate news dissemination within a small set of organizations.
The second potential crisis stems from the obesity surge linked to glucagon-like peptide-1 or GLP-1 based medications. While weight-loss pills have been seen as a remedy for a global obesity problem, by 2024 they may contribute to its growth. If these medications curb appetite and lead people to reduce physical activity or gravitate toward fast food, supply constraints could intensify health challenges worldwide.
Saxo Bank’s scenario for the United States predicts a phase that could resemble a shift away from traditional capitalism in 2024. In the climate of presidential elections, expanded government spending might be required to curb economic strain and social unrest. Inflationary pressures could persist, while foreign capital remains drawn to U.S. markets. A tax policy move—exempting certain government bond income—could redirect money from private firms to the state, raising questions about the future of capitalism as an economic model. The analysis notes a political twist with the possible rise of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the first independent candidate in American history.
The oil market is another area for potential disturbance in 2024. Brent crude could spike toward $150 per barrel, according to Saxo Bank analysts. Saudi Arabia might leverage oil revenue to secure premium media rights, aiming to reposition its economy away from an oil-centric path as part of a broader Vision 2030 agenda. This evolution would mark a step toward economic diversification and energy transition goals by 2030.
Within the European Union, a new luxury tax might be introduced to offset the rising costs of green energy, aid for Ukraine, and inflation controls. Analysts warn such a move could hit the luxury goods sector, reduce demand for high-end brands, and pressure major fashion houses. Stocks of labels like Porsche, Ferrari, and LVMH could experience notable volatility as markets weigh these policy shifts against growth prospects.
What was predicted in 2023
Saxo Bank’s annual forecasts, though not guaranteed to come true, aim to sketch possible future landscapes. The 2023 scenarios anticipated a surge in gold prices and suggested that meat production could face fresh restrictions in at least one country. The report also touched on political uncertainty, noting Emmanuel Macron could depart the French presidency unexpectedly.
The 2023 outlook described a move toward a wartime economy, with major powers prioritizing national security and domestic resilience. A Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom was another scenario, though in practice its occurrence did not materialize. Analysts emphasize that these exercises are not precise predictions but imaginative explorations of what the world might look like, given geopolitical and economic forces at play.
In the end, Saxo Bank emphasizes that such forecasts offer a framework for thinking about risk and opportunity in a rapidly changing environment. They encourage readers to consider how technology, policy, and market dynamics could interact in unexpected ways, shaping both challenges and openings on the global stage.