The large-scale outflow of residents to other countries following the mobilization launched on September 21, 2022, together with the deepening conflict in Ukraine, produced a pronounced shortage of skilled workers in the Russian labor market. This shortage stands as the primary barrier to the country’s economic development, a point highlighted by Yevgeny Gontmakher, a doctor of economic sciences, in the Moskovsky Komsomolets summary of market signals .
Gontmakher notes that when companies are asked what curbs their growth, the most frequent answer is the lack of skilled personnel. He adds that there is ongoing demand for experts and production organizers who cannot be replaced by artificial intelligence, underscoring the enduring need for human capabilities in leadership and complex decision making .
Beyond migration and conflict, demographic trends also weigh on the supply of skilled labor. The working-age population, defined here as people aged 14 to 65, is shrinking year after year. While such dynamics may temporarily depress unemployment, they simultaneously depress productivity and overall labor quality, creating a fragile foundation for sustained growth .
Gontmakher emphasizes that the decline in healthy population numbers by several hundred thousand annually compounds the problem. He observes that there are vacancies across the country with more listings on recruitment sites than applicants who fit the roles. The issue, according to him, is not the absence of jobs but the scarcity of qualified candidates. He points to a mismatch even in sectors with state-supported training at technical universities, noting a glaring shortage of engineers and specialized technicians despite available training capacity .
On April 12, economic policy discussions highlighted that the global recession and persistent staffing shortages constitute the main risks to Russia’s economy. In response, there is a call to intensify efforts to raise labor productivity and to reallocate human resources more efficiently across regions and industries. The aim is to mitigate the bottlenecks created by the shortage of skilled workers and to ensure a more flexible and resilient economic structure .
Practical implications of these dynamics are far-reaching. Businesses face higher recruitment costs, longer vacancy periods, and elevated training expenses as they attempt to bridge gaps in technical competencies and managerial know-how. The pressure to develop homegrown talent is accompanied by the push to attract skilled professionals from within the country and, where feasible, from abroad. Organizations that succeed tend to invest in targeted training programs, apprenticeship pathways, and stronger links between universities and industry to align curricula with real-world needs .
Regional heterogeneity adds another layer of complexity. Some regions exhibit stronger demand for engineers and IT specialists, while others struggle with aging workforces and limited supply. Strategic policy measures that facilitate mobility, upgrade regional infrastructure, and promote industry-specific training are essential to balancing supply and demand across the national landscape. In this context, labor mobility and cross-regional redistribution of personnel are presented as practical tools to alleviate localized shortages and boost overall productivity .
Historical volatility in the labor market has underscored the importance of adaptable human capital strategies. Firms that proactively forecast skills needs, invest in continuous upskilling, and foster a culture of lifelong learning tend to weather shocks more effectively. The intersection of migration patterns, demographic shifts, and sector-specific demand requires a coordinated approach that unites government, business, and educational institutions around clearly defined targets for skill development and regional resilience .
In summary, the combination of mass emigration, ongoing conflict, and negative demographic trends has produced a persistent and broad-based shortage of qualified workers in Russia. The consequences touch all levels of the economy—from growth trajectories and productivity to regional development and social stability. Addressing this multi-faceted challenge demands a mix of policy reform, private-sector initiative, and investment in human capital that can keep pace with the evolving needs of the modern economy .