Over the past month, new-build prices in Russia’s largest regional markets edged higher by about 1.6 to 1.9 percent. Market observers attribute this to a softening demand paired with a rising supply of units. According to data tracked by CIAN, the average price per square meter in the 18 biggest regional markets stood at 162,600 rubles at the start of December, marking a 1.6 percent month-over-month increase. The pace of price gains has slowed, with a monthly rise of around 2.4 percent observed previously before the current deceleration.
In Moscow, the cost of a square meter in new developments rose roughly 1.5 percent, reaching 347,800 rubles. Saint Petersburg also saw a modest uptick, with prices climbing about 0.2 percent to 255,600 rubles per square meter. While these capitals show steadier growth, several other cities are experiencing more pronounced increases as developers respond to evolving market dynamics.
Market supply is expanding as well, with the volume of new listings increasing by about 2 percent per month, according to CIAN. Meanwhile, buyer activity softened, dropping around 7.3 percent. Analysts anticipate further declines in demand as concessional mortgage lending tightens, a shift that could influence buyers to delay purchases or seek more favorable terms.
In response, developers are expected to temper price increases and lean more on discounts to boost sales. Sergei Zaitsev, a sales director with Etazhi, anticipates a continued slowdown in new-build sales at the start of the year, driven in part by the pre-holiday rush fading and broader financing constraints. This combination of moderating demand and greater supply may reshape pricing strategies across many regions in the near term.
There is ongoing discussion about the broader housing finance landscape. Earlier analyses contemplated how many rural communities could be supported by rural mortgage programs, highlighting the persistent challenges and shifting opportunities within Russia’s housing finance system. Industry voices suggest that the market can anticipate continued volatility as lenders recalibrate terms and levels of support. The overarching forecast points to a gradual, but uneven, stabilization rather than a swift recovery, with regional differences likely to persist in the months ahead.
Overall, the trajectory suggests that while price growth remains and supply grows, demand is likely to cool further as financing conditions tighten. The market watchers emphasize that developers may rely more on promotional pricing and incentives to sustain momentum, particularly in markets where affordability pressures are most acute. The coming quarters could see a more balanced environment, with attention turning to inventory levels, mortgage accessibility, and regional economic factors that influence homebuying activity.